Thursday, April 27, 2017

Global warming trend with ups and downs, but without slowdown or speed-up

Temperatures worldwide are increasing due to greenhouse-gases from fossil fuels. Past claims of a noteworthy ‘slowdown’ of the global warming trend are proven wrong by statistical analysis, a new study shows. Researchers from Germany and the US examined global-mean surface temperature trends, in the light of the three record breaking years 2014-2015-2016 in most datasets. While there of course is some natural short-term variability, the study finds no significant slowdown let alone ‘pause’ in the upward trend.

“Short-term fluctuations are normal in global temperature, and they can be deceptive,” says lead author Stefan Rahmstorf. “Because fluctuation is ever-present, it is important to tell the difference between genuine trend change and appearances that are merely the manifestation of ‘noise’”. Most scientific publications that discussed an alleged ‘hiatus’ have not provided a thorough statistical assessment. The scientists, including two statisticians, examined five separate global temperature data sets – the NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, HadCRUT4, the revision of HadCRUT by Cowtan and Way, and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature BEST.

Read the Science and Technology Research News story - “Global warming trend with ups and downs, but without slowdown or speed-up.”

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