ESB modelling confirms NEG designed to shut door on renewables

The latest modelling for the federal Coalition’s proposed National Energy Guarantee confirms the new policy would effectively shut the door on new renewable investment at the national level in the next decade.

The modelling – included in a new 50-page document prepared by the Energy Security Board for the COAG energy ministers meeting on Friday – suggests that the NEG is barely better than doing nothing.

In its low demand scenario, doing nothing would meet the government’s emissions targets just as effectively as the NEG, the modelling shows. Adopting the NEG would add an extra 1 percent of renewable capacity over doing nothing over a whole decade.

“Both BAU and the Guarantee achieve the emissions reduction target under the ‘low demand’ scenario,” it says. And that would mean no need for any new wind or solar.

In its most optimistic scenario (see table below), the NEG would add just 4 percent of additional renewable capacity over business as usual – yet even this modelling appears to underestimate the uptake of rooftop solar. So the incentive for new large-scale investment is largely illusory.

Read the story by Giles Parkinson on RenewEconomy - “ESB modelling confirms NEG designed to shut door on renewables,”