Let’s not get ahead of ourselves

After federal Liberal MP turned independent MP Julia Banks announced last week that she would run against Greg Hunt in Flinders at this year’s election, Liberal powerbroker and two-time former Victorian president Michael Kroger very quickly assured Sky News that the health minister was safe because he “got 51 per cent of the primary vote” at the last election.

Immediate excitement: independent
candidate Zali Steggall announcing
last month that she will contest Tony
Abbott’s seat of Warringah.

Kroger has been involved in countless campaigns and is supposed to be one of the smart ones, but this piece of straw-clutching was nonsensical. Independents don’t usually win marginal seats; they nearly always take territory that was formerly very safe for one major party or the other.

Sophie Mirabella received 52.6 per cent of the primary vote in Indi in 2010 but was tipped out by Cathy McGowan at the next outing. In Mayo, Jamie Briggs got 53.8 in 2013, yet three years later lost to Rebekha Sharkie of the Centre Alliance.

Hunt is likely to survive, but not because of his primary vote last time round. It will be because Banks is largely unknown outside the political bubble — and besides, it’s always difficult for an independent to snatch a seat.

Read the Inside Story by Peter Brent - “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.”