Total fire bans in much of Victoria this weekend

Total fire bans in much of Victoria this weekend.

Total fire bans have been declared in much of northern Victoria on Saturday as the state braces for severe fire danger.

Total fire bans have been declared in the Mallee, Northern Country, North East and North Central districts – campfires cannot be lit and solid and liquid fuel barbecues and ovens are also banned.

Bushfire conditions will ramp up tomorrow with temperatures in the high 30s and winds.

Read the Melbourne Age story - "Dangerous bushfire weekend for parts of Victoria.”

"Heat warning' to Goulburn Valley community

Declan Martin reports in today’s Shepparton News – “Heat warning – people told to exercise caution as temperature to hit 42 C”.

Local authorities are urging people to protect themselves from the heat with the Goulburn Valley set to experience its hottest day so far for 2016 with a forecast to temperature of 42°C.

Tomorrow will cap of a warm start to the week with temperatures above 35°C both yesterday and today but relief should come with a cool change on Thursday with rain expected to bring down the maximum to 23°C.

Country Fire Authority CFA District 23 operations officer Tony Owen is urging people to exercise extreme caution tomorrow.

“A severe weather warning is currently in place for Wednesday but it’s expected that many part of the State including Northern Country (this includes District 22) could be upgraded to a total fire ban late Tuesday,” he said.

“When you have a day that is bordering on a total fire ban, I hope people show common sense and ask themselves, ‘Do I need to be doing this on a day this hot?’

“Activities such as using an angle grinder, lighting up a barbeque at an outdoor park or travelling in a bush environment will probably have to wait on Wednesday.”

Ambulance Victoria State Health Commander Paul Holman said heat killed more Australians than any other natural disaster.

“Survive the heat by staying indoors and turning on your air conditioner or fan and avoid strenuous activity,” he said.

“If you must go outside, restrict it to the coolest parts of the day and wear a hat and use sunscreen and take a bottle of water with you.”

Greater Shepparton’s community director Kaye Thompson said it was important residents kept an eye on those within the population who were vulnerable.

This included people aged over 65, particular those living without air conditioning; children under five; pregnant or breast feeding women and people with existing medical conditions.

“Many vulnerable people do not have friends or relatives living nearby,” Ms Thompson said.

“So if you have an elderly neighbour or live near someone you know is unwell, make sure you keep an eye on them during the hot weather.

“We also encourage people or businesses where staff are required to work outdoors in the heat to look to alternatives to ensure good health of their staff.

“This could include starting and finishing work earlier, or working indoors if possible,” she added.

News story warns of peaking El Niño bringing drought conditions

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oday’s Page One story by Darren Linton in the Shepparton News: “Dry forecast – weather experts predict drought conditions ahead with El Niño expected to peak in summer”.

The current El Niño event continues to strengthen but the latest modelling suggests it will peak in summer before rapidly weakening. El Niño is usually associated with below average rainfall across southern Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology said recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators were at levels that had not been seen since the 1997-98 El Niño.

Persistently weak or reversed trade winds and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), in conjunction with the ongoing warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicate the El Niño is unlikely to end before early 2016.

Climate models indicate sea surface temperature in the central tropical Pacific are likely to rise further over the next few months and could exceed the levels in 1997-98 leading to a prolonged drought.

The good news is that while strong, all models suggest the current event will peak around the end of the year, followed by rapid weakening, heading into autumn 2016.

The bureau said it was too early to accurately determine the likely pattern beyond autumn, but a continued El Niño was considered the least likely outcome.

Lake Eildon, the major storage on the Goulburn system, is down to 61.5 per cent of capacity, which is well below the September level in recent years.

The El Niño outlook gives hope that the storages will get enough rainfall in 2016 to recover from a long, dry summer.

There was some good news on the water front with the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder announcing an intent to trade 20 000 ML of Goulburn temporary water.

It is the first time the CEWH has confirmed a selling intent to trade water in Southern Connected System.

The intended 20 000 ML would represent less than three per cent of the total volume traded to date in the Southern Connected temporary market during the 2015-16 season.

In another front, orchardists will have a nervous 24 hours later in the week with the bureau predicting a chance of frost across the north-east and parts of the Northern Country area.

A cold southerly airstream will cross the state today and daytime temperatures will drop to 14°C.

The current forecast indicates an overnight low of 2°C and patches of morning frost on Thursday.

On another climate associated front the Melbourne Age reports: “Coastal flooding, erosion forecast, as storms gather pace”.