Record-busting heat in eastern Australia as climate warming goes extreme

Projected temperatures across Australia
for Sunday 5 February 2017.

2016 was by far the hottest year in the observation record, with the global average surface temperature 1.24 degrees Celsius (°C) warmer that the late nineteenth century, according to NASA data. This broke the record set just the previous year of 1.12°C, which in turn broke the previous mark set in 2014 of 1.01°C.

Although the El Nino conditions of 2015-2016 had some influence (perhaps 0.2°C) it is clear that the warming trend is 1°C or more.

And now Ben Domensino of Weatherzone reports that the month of February is about to put eastern Australia's record-breaking hot January to shame, with a historic spell of hot days and nights gripping parts of central Australia, southern Queensland and northern New South Wales during the first half of February:

The southwest Queensland town of Birdsville is forecast to reach 45-48 degrees from now until Thursday and could extend this run to 10 days by next weekend. This spell would smash the existing record of six consecutive days over 45 degrees from 2014 and 2004. Overnight minimums during this time should remain above 30 degrees, beating the 2012 record of six in a row. Birdsville's hottest day on record was 49.5 degrees on 24th January 1972.

Thargomindah's run of days above 44 degrees could reach 10 by Friday next week, including a few days at 46 degrees. The previous record run of days above 44 in the last 138 years was seven, in 2004.

Walgett in northern New South Wales will be a few degrees 'cooler' than its northern neighbours, reaching 41-45 degrees for the next week. This would take their run of days over 40 degrees to 12 by Thursday and it should to reach 15 next weekend. The current record of 18 days from 1884 could certainly be challenged this month.

Bourke has exceeded 40 degrees for the last six days in a row and will extend this tally to 16 by next weekend. There is a good chance the 121 year old record of 22 days above 40 degrees will be beaten by the middle of this month.

South Australia's Moomba is forecast to reach 46 degrees for six days straight, from this Saturday to Thursday next week. This will be an unprecedented run of hot days for the town, which has data available back to 1972.

Read the Climate Code Red story - “Record-busting heat in eastern Australia as climate warming goes extreme.”

Sydney basin likely for 'longest spell' of early season heat

P

arts of the Sydney Basin are likely to get their longest spell of early-season heat on record, giving residents and visitors yet more reason to hit the beaches.

Penrith, Bankstown and Richmond could all bask in four consecutive days above 33 degrees in a heatwave that began on Saturday, James Casey, a meteorologist with Weatherzone, said.

Penrith is forecast to reach 37 degrees on both Monday and Tuesday, with Richmond likely to peak at similar levels.

Sydney's Observatory Hill won't be quite that hot but a trio of days 33 degrees or warmer from Sunday to Tuesday, if reached, would be the city's warmest October run since 2004, Mr Casey said.

Read the Sydney Morning Herald story - “Sydney weather: Melting records point to lingering warmth.”