Predictions for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, now officially under way, amount to a fairy typical forecast and hold no great surprises. Between projections from NOAA and from Colorado State University we’re pretty much looking at more than a dozen named storms, a half-dozen or so hurricanes and a few of those major ones.
|Ocean weather research buoy instruments measure sea|
surface temperature, air pressure, wave height, and
storm surge and offer insights on hurricanes and more.
Of course all it takes is one strategically-located, powerful storm to turn an average or even a below-average season prediction into a nightmare. Think hurricane Andrew in the accurately-predicted below-average year of 1992. Last year wasn’t supposed to have been all that terrible a season. Ask the victims of Maria, Harvey, and Irma how that worked out.
Hurricanes at best are difficult to predict at any stage of their development and lifespan. A lot of scientific data and new-age technology have improved our data collection ability and therefore our understandings. But assessing the impacts of climate change – they also difficult to predict – on hurricanes is very much a work in progress.
Read the Yale Climate Connections story by Jan Ellen Spiegel - “Analyzing climate change/hurricane links.”