Monday, June 11, 2018

Analyzing climate change/hurricane links

Predictions for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, now officially under way, amount to a fairy typical forecast and hold no great surprises. Between projections from NOAA and from Colorado State University we’re pretty much looking at more than a dozen named storms, a half-dozen or so hurricanes and a few of those major ones.
Ocean weather research buoy instruments measure sea
 surface temperature, air pressure, wave height, and
storm surge and offer insights on hurricanes and more.
Of course all it takes is one strategically-located, powerful storm to turn an average or even a below-average season prediction into a nightmare. Think hurricane Andrew in the accurately-predicted below-average year of 1992. Last year wasn’t supposed to have been all that terrible a season. Ask the victims of Maria, Harvey, and Irma how that worked out.

Hurricanes at best are difficult to predict at any stage of their development and lifespan. A lot of scientific data and new-age technology have improved our data collection ability and therefore our understandings. But assessing the impacts of climate change – they also difficult to predict – on hurricanes is very much a work in progress.

Read the Yale Climate Connections story by Jan Ellen Spiegel - “Analyzing climate change/hurricane links.”

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