The 'softening' view apocalyptic temperature increases

by Robert McLean

Earlier, most people conscious of the apocalyptic potential of climate change shuddered at the thought of a two degree increase above preindustrial temperatures.

And “earlier” was just several years ago.

The image being used to promote "Guardians of the Earth."

That’s changing, subtlety but definitely and it was witnessed only last night at the screening of “Guardians of the Earth” at Melbourne’s Nova Cinema’s.

The 90 minute film takes viewers to the 2015 Paris negotiations at which 190 nations gathered to discuss a potential agreement aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and thus avoiding the threat of dangerous climate change.

Director Filip Antoni Malinowski, who was at the Nova screening, used the movie to give viewers a special insight on the drama and machinations of what happens when the delegations from nearly 200 countries discuss, debate and reach for a conclusion about how the world’s atmosphere should be preserved from the accelerated dangers brought by excessive carbon dioxide.

Each country came to the near two-week conference with particular agendas and left with an agreement of which the key elements were:

• To keep global temperatures "well below" 2.0C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times and "endeavour to limit" them even more, to 1.5C
• To limit the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity to the same levels that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally, beginning at some point between 2050 and 2100
• To review each country's contribution to cutting emissions every five years so they scale up to the challenge
• For rich countries to help poorer nations by providing "climate finance" to adapt to climate change and switch to renewable energy.

However, while each country submitted Independently Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) and arrival at and agreement to those voluntary targets was often contested and controversial with developed countries frequently arguing for an easing of agreements and poorer countries, frequently among those likely to first feel the greatest impact of climate change, pitching for more aggressive goals.

The agreed - “To keep global temperatures "well below" 2.0C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times and "endeavour to limit" them even more, to 1.5C “ - has brought a strange and misplaced comfort to many people as it is commonly acknowledged that even an increase of 1.5 degrees will bring systemic changes that will make live increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for many people around the world.

That “comfort” was obvious at the Nova on Wednesday night as no one spoke up about the dangers the world faces even if all those signatories to the agreement meet their voluntary INDCs, world still faces temperature increases of well more than two degrees and maybe even in excess of three degrees.

The first would be remarkably challenging and the second would render many parts of the Earth unliveable for humans.

A grasp and understanding of that fact appeared to be absent on Wednesday night and many people appeared at ease about the two degree increase.

Victoria's Energy and Enviroment
Minister Lily D'Ambrosio was
represented atWednesday's
 screening was the Deputy
Decretary Energy,Envronment
and Climate Change, Kylie White.

Such a judgement may well be a little harsh as the educated group at Wednesday night’s screening are probably well aware that the two degree increase is already unavoidable and rather than sit about lamenting that, we simply need to state it and then get on with devising methods of adaptation.

Wednesday night’s screening was followed by a panel discussion involving, along with Filip Antoni Malinowski, a senior German climate official currently researching climate and energy transition strategies at Murdoch University in Perth, Dr Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter; United National Association Victoria,  Graham Hunter; and  Carolyn Ingvarson from Lighter Footprints who commented that the Paris Agreement at least gave activist groups such as hers something on which to pin their arguments. 

The screening was organised by the University of Melbourne’s Australian-German Climate and Energy College, supported by Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Austrian Embassy Canberra, the Embassy of Poland in Canberra and the Embassy of France in Canberra.

”Guardians of the Earth”, according to Filip Antoni Malinowski highlights the dilemma between solidarity versus perceived national self-interest.