The 'softening' view apocalyptic temperature increases

by Robert McLean

Earlier, most people conscious of the apocalyptic potential of climate change shuddered at the thought of a two degree increase above preindustrial temperatures.

And “earlier” was just several years ago.

The image being used to promote "Guardians of the Earth."

That’s changing, subtlety but definitely and it was witnessed only last night at the screening of “Guardians of the Earth” at Melbourne’s Nova Cinema’s.

The 90 minute film takes viewers to the 2015 Paris negotiations at which 190 nations gathered to discuss a potential agreement aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and thus avoiding the threat of dangerous climate change.

Director Filip Antoni Malinowski, who was at the Nova screening, used the movie to give viewers a special insight on the drama and machinations of what happens when the delegations from nearly 200 countries discuss, debate and reach for a conclusion about how the world’s atmosphere should be preserved from the accelerated dangers brought by excessive carbon dioxide.

Each country came to the near two-week conference with particular agendas and left with an agreement of which the key elements were:

• To keep global temperatures "well below" 2.0C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times and "endeavour to limit" them even more, to 1.5C
• To limit the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity to the same levels that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally, beginning at some point between 2050 and 2100
• To review each country's contribution to cutting emissions every five years so they scale up to the challenge
• For rich countries to help poorer nations by providing "climate finance" to adapt to climate change and switch to renewable energy.

However, while each country submitted Independently Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) and arrival at and agreement to those voluntary targets was often contested and controversial with developed countries frequently arguing for an easing of agreements and poorer countries, frequently among those likely to first feel the greatest impact of climate change, pitching for more aggressive goals.

The agreed - “To keep global temperatures "well below" 2.0C (3.6F) above pre-industrial times and "endeavour to limit" them even more, to 1.5C “ - has brought a strange and misplaced comfort to many people as it is commonly acknowledged that even an increase of 1.5 degrees will bring systemic changes that will make live increasingly difficult, if not impossible, for many people around the world.

That “comfort” was obvious at the Nova on Wednesday night as no one spoke up about the dangers the world faces even if all those signatories to the agreement meet their voluntary INDCs, world still faces temperature increases of well more than two degrees and maybe even in excess of three degrees.

The first would be remarkably challenging and the second would render many parts of the Earth unliveable for humans.

A grasp and understanding of that fact appeared to be absent on Wednesday night and many people appeared at ease about the two degree increase.

Victoria's Energy and Enviroment
Minister Lily D'Ambrosio was
represented atWednesday's
 screening was the Deputy
Decretary Energy,Envronment
and Climate Change, Kylie White.

Such a judgement may well be a little harsh as the educated group at Wednesday night’s screening are probably well aware that the two degree increase is already unavoidable and rather than sit about lamenting that, we simply need to state it and then get on with devising methods of adaptation.

Wednesday night’s screening was followed by a panel discussion involving, along with Filip Antoni Malinowski, a senior German climate official currently researching climate and energy transition strategies at Murdoch University in Perth, Dr Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter; United National Association Victoria,  Graham Hunter; and  Carolyn Ingvarson from Lighter Footprints who commented that the Paris Agreement at least gave activist groups such as hers something on which to pin their arguments. 

The screening was organised by the University of Melbourne’s Australian-German Climate and Energy College, supported by Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Austrian Embassy Canberra, the Embassy of Poland in Canberra and the Embassy of France in Canberra.

”Guardians of the Earth”, according to Filip Antoni Malinowski highlights the dilemma between solidarity versus perceived national self-interest.

Brides of the sun: this is what climate change looks like

Everyone has their own idea about what climate change looks like. It's that polar bear adrift on its ice floe. It is an apocalyptic future of cities disappearing beneath the waves. Or it is just a big fat lie.

Agnes Mposwa,15, was married at the age of 14 and has a new baby.

Hardly anyone would imagine it is a young girl sitting in the doorway of a mud hut in a small African village, nursing her first baby as she watches her friends trot off to school.

But a new investigation suggests that girl, and millions more like her, are now the human face of climate change.

As rising temperatures and irregular rainfall throughout Africa have brought more drought and flooding, families once able to feed themselves have seen harvests fail year after year.

Eventually, many conclude that there is only one option left: their daughters have to go.

Read Gethin Chamberlain’s story in today”s Melbourne Age - “Brides of the sun: this is what climate change looks like.”

Climate change may be escalating so fast it could be 'game over', scientists warn

Donald Trump's imminent presence
in the White House suggests it is
'game over' for attempts to mitigate
climate change.

It is a vision of a future so apocalyptic that it is hard to even imagine.

But, if leading scientists writing in one of the most respected academic journals are right, planet Earth could be on course for global warming of more than seven degrees Celsius within a lifetime.

And that, according to one of the world’s most renowned climatologists, could be “game over” – particularly given the imminent presence of climate change denier Donald Trump in the White House.

Scientists have long tried to work out how the climate will react over the coming decades to the greenhouse gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere.

According to the current best estimate, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if humans carry on with a “business as usual” approach using large amounts of fossil fuels, the Earth’s average temperature will rise by between 2.6 and 4.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Read The Independent story - “Climate change may be escalating so fast it could be 'game over', scientists warn.”

From Darwin to climate change - the debate goes on

by Robert McLean

Those uncomfortable with Darwin’s evolutionary thesis appear to have coalesced to become contemporary skeptics of human induced climate change.

Charles Darwin

In fact those who have “other world” beliefs, or faith in one of many supernatural powers, appear to have a reservoir of almost unrecognized opinions that emerge as skepticism when the conversation turns to climate change.

That, in itself, is not necessarily a bad thing, rather simply illustrates that people sheathed in modernity are really locked into an era and values with which Charles Darwin wrestled when he first talked of evolution in 1859.

Those with that hidden and unrecognised allegiance to creationism threaten humanity’s survival and seemingly unconsciously attribute our changing climate as retribution from supernatural powers for our less than ideal behaviour.

Thoughts about our behaviour maybe accurate, but what is happening, it must be emphasised, is in fact the outcome of how we are treating the planet and not, despite the views of many, the consequence of decisions by some other-worldly source.

That, however, is just another distraction keeping us from actively confronting the challenges we face in a world wrestling with at least a trio of forces, being climate change, energy depletion and a collapsing global economy.

Religious beliefs, whatever they might be, are frequently of life and death importance to those who adhere to them, but humanity’s present dilemmas are of such magnitude that they far exceed personal adherence to those various beliefs.

The waste of war

Mankind has toiled for centuries through many social eruptions, both good and bad and until now they have been comparatively local, even though World War Two swept around much of the planet, but what is evolving surpasses any past dilemma.

Apocalyptic rhetoric espousing facts beyond other-worldly faiths have little impact on creationist sympathizers and although dilemmas facing humanity are secular they can only be addressed through actions that are practical, reasoned, pragmatic and earthly, rather than through prayers to an entity who existence is utterly improbable.

That is not to say, however, that those with other-worldly beliefs should stand aside for the energy and commitment they devote to their faith in instructive to us all, being illustrative of what will be needed as we struggle with the many and varied impacts of these world-changing humanity-threatening occurrences.

Long have I imagined that an extra-terrestrial threat was needed to fuse humanity, to get beyond our school yard-like spats and stand as one address the peril and so fend if off.

Never did I imagine that the prolificacy of humans, both in terms of sheer numbers and our ever-expanding knowledge base, would themselves produce that menace.

Present emerging hazards have emerged from human endeavour and that same purpose driven enterprise free from the superstitions that hindered Darwin stand as our prime defence.