Predictions for El Niño in autumn

The Goulburn Valley may have said farewell to summer, but the heat is far from over, with temperatures forecast to stretch into the mid 30s this week.

Temperature and rainfall will be anything but autumnal, as the Bureau of Meteorology predicts the month of March to be marked by above-average temperatures and drier than average conditions.

As part of the weather bureau’s climate outlook for the next three months, the majority of Victoria, including the Goulburn Valley, will receive below average rainfall.

Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average over the majority of Australia, with further heatwaves possible and heatwave and bushfire risks likely to be raised across the state.

Read Rhiannon Tuffield story in the Shepparton News - “Predictions for El Niño in autumn.”

We're heading for warmer and wetter times

(Climate change is unfolding pretty much as predicted – it’s following the script. The denialists will cherry-pick this outcome, pointing that the rain illustrates weaknesses in the climate change case failing to acknowledge that the predicted warmth is precisely what the climate scientists warned us about what was coming.

This increase in temperatures has impacts that unsettle many aspects of life, among them that the colder months are usually sufficient to stop some destructive pests and viruses in their tracks; the drop in temperatures enrich many farming activities; warmer nights often make it more difficult for people to sleep and subsequently their health deteriorates; and whatever positives may claim are clearly outweighed by the negatives – Robert McLean)



The chance of exceeding median
 minimum temperatures around the state.

Victoria is in for a warmer than usual start to winter and a wetter finish, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's latest season forecast.

The bureau has released its climate outlook, which predicts median temperatures and rainfall around the country, for the months of May, June, and July.

According to the forecast, there is an 80 per cent chance minimum temperatures around almost all of the state will be higher than usual over the three months.

Read the Melbourne Age story - “Climate outlook predicts warmer, wetter winter for parts of Victoria.”

And 'The heat is on' - Shepparton

Under the heading “The heat is on”, today’s Shepparton News tells its readers that December was one of the hottest on record while last year was the driest since 2009.

It reports:

The Shepparton area experienced its driest year since 2009 in 2015, which also included on of the hottest Decembers in recorded history.

Shepparton had 364.2 mm of rainfall last year, short of the 441.5 mm average, while Tatura, Kyabram, Echuca and Benalla all experienced a similar outcome with a less rainfall than their annual average.

In Shepparton, the year started off with plenty of rainfall however there was notably drier than normal spring.

November had above average rain for the month (68.2 mm) but the whole of spring produced a meagre 96 mm, well short of 119 mm average after a dry winter.

Several hail storm events in November notably hit orchards and fruit growers in the area in a period of weeks ruining years of produce in the process.

December was the hottest in Shepparton based on the maximum mean temperature of 31.7°C which is 1.5 degrees more than the highest previous record registered in 2014 and 2.9 degrees higher than historical average for the month.

There were 22 days in December that went higher than 30°C and nine days that went beyond -3.2°C.

The hottest day in 2015 also came in December as well with a temperature of 41°C on December 19; the coolest temperature was June 21 when the temperature dropped overnight to -3.2°C.

However, July was the coldest month in 2015 with the mean maximum temperature 12.7°C half a degree cooler than the average.

At the start of December the Lake Eildon Dam the region’s storage was close to 50 per cent capacity because of water allocations to farmers earlier in the year and the dry conditions.

There is some potential for respire from the extreme heat though the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook for January to March showing there’s only an even chance of going over the median temperature being exceeded.