‘Monster' El Nino a chance later this year, pointing to extended dry times

Relief for Australia's drought-hit regions could be a long way off, with climate influences in the Pacific and Indian oceans tilting towards drier conditions and a large El Nino event a possibility by year's end.

Climate scientists said the conditions in the Pacific were particularly concerning given an unusual build-up of equatorial heat below the surface that could provide the fuel for a significant El Nino.

Read the story from The Sydney Morning Herald by Peter Hannam - “‘Monster' El Nino a chance later this year, pointing to extended dry times.”

No relief for farmers as BoM predicts spring heatwave

Australia’s weather forecasters have offered the country’s drought-hit farmers scarce relief after predicting that warmer and drier conditions are set to continue through spring.

Broken Hill (above) received just 9% of its average winter rainfall.
 Bureau of Meteorology says dry conditions are likely to continue
 through spring.

After a drier than average year so far, the Bureau of Meteorology released its spring outlook on Thursday and warned that southern and south-eastern parts of the country are facing the prospect of an early summer heatwave.

Andrew Watkins, manager of long-range forecasts at the BoM, said parts of the country had received less than half of their average rainfall in winter. For example, Broken Hill in western New South Wales which received just 9% of its winter average and Dubbo had 40%.

Read the story by Lisa Cox from The Guardian - “No relief for farmers as BoM predicts spring heatwave.”

Warmer, drier conditions ahead - Shepparton News

Rhiannon Tuffield writes about “Warmer, drier conditions ahead” in today’s Shepparton News.

The Goulburn Valley is in for some fairly mild weather during the next month, with warmer and drier conditions forecast for much of the state.

Although heavy rain fell across much of Australia last month, bringing a downpour about Anzac Day, the Bureau of Meteorology has predicted a dry season ahead. Temperatures in April were above average across much of the country and will now continue into May, placing the country in the depths of an El Niño, signalling reduced rainfall through winter and into spring.

BoM senior climatologist Paul Gregory said the outlook for rainfall for June would be below average for Goulburn Valley, and days and nights would likely be warmer than average.

This time of the year has caused the tropical Indian Ocean to influence Australian rainfall and current model outlooks suggest cool conditions may persist in the central to east Indian Ocean, increasing the chance of dry conditions for south-east Australia.

“Around central and northern Victoria you’ll be looking at a 25 per cent chance of exceeding the average rainfall, so it looks fairly dry for this month,” Dr Gregory said.

“The likelihood of an El Niño has increased dramatically, and that means below average rainfall and less clouds around, which suggests some warmer nights ahead”.w