How will rainfall change in Northern Australia over the coming century?

Climate change means that the past climate of Northern Australia may not be a reliable guide to future conditions. 

The May 15 webinar will help you understand
more about northern Australia's climate.

Climate change projections provide us with information and data about how rainfall, temperature and other aspects of climate may change in the future. 

Information about future changes in the timing, amount and variability of wet season or summer monsoon rainfall is important for a variety of Northern Australian communities, industries and decision makers.

While climate models agree that temperatures will increase over Northern Australia under a range of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios, projected changes in rainfall are less clear. 

For example, under a high emissions scenario climate models project wet season rainfall changes ranging from a decrease of 25 percent to an increase of 25 percent by the end of the century.

Learn more about northern Australia’s changing climate at the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub webinar  - “How will rainfall change in Northern Australia over the coming century?”

Damming northern Australian rivers questioned as damning to sustainability

Different visions for developing northern Australia -
the Coalition wants to build dams, while
 Labor wants to support the tourism industry.

Ahead of the election, the major parties have released different visions for developing northern Australia. The Coalition has committed to dam projects across Queensland; Labor has pledged to support the tourism industry.

These pledges build on the Coalition’s A$5 billion Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, a fund to support large projects, starting on July 1.

The Coalition has pledged A$20 million to support 14 new or existing dams across Queensland should the government be returned to power, as part of a A$2.5 billion plan for dams across northern Australia.

Labor, meanwhile, will redirect A$1 billion from the fund towards tourism, including eco-tourism, indigenous tourism ventures and transport infrastructure (airports, trains, and ports).

It is well recognised that the development of northern Australia will depend on harnessing the north’s abundant water resources. However, it’s also well recognised that the ongoing use of water resources to support industry and agriculture hinges on the health and sustainability of those water resources.

Read the piece on The Conversation by a Senior Fellow from the Centre for Resources, Energy and Environment Law at the University of Melbourne, Erin O'Donnell; the Emeritus Professor of Water Science at Monash University, Barry Hart; and a Research fellow at the Department of Infrastructure Engineering at the University of Melbourne, Avril Horne - “Rush to dam northern Australia comes at the expense of sustainability.”

Northern Australia plans ignore the 'elephant in the room' - climate!

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onsiderations about the development of northern Australia already mentioned on Beneath the Wisteria have been echoed by Steve Turton writing on The Conversation.

The Professor of Environmental Geography at James Cook University argued that a recently released white paper on developing northern Australia ignored the elephant in the room: climate change.

“While the paper sees a bright future for the north (roads, rail, dams and food), without considering climate change we can’t be sure the north will even be liveable.

“The white paper also fails to take into account other environmental constraints such as water and soils,” he writes.

On Friday morning Prime Minister Tony Abbott, together with his deputy Warren Truss, Trade Minister Andrew Robb and Federal Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch, spoke passionately to a packed breakfast in Cairns about his government’s vision for Northern Australia, with Abbott describing the white paper as a landmark report for the north.

Read Professor Turton’ story - “Climate: the elephant in the room for developing northern Australia”.

White Paper based on 20th Century ideas

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wentieth Century ideas have been applied to the drawing up of a Federal Government white paper for the development of northern Australia.

Andrew Campbell.

Andrew Campbell writes on The Conversation arguing that the white paper is primarily about “hard infrastructure” saying little about its opposite, “soft infrastructure”.

The essence of the paper also appears to assume that the purported riches of northern Australia can be exploited without any reference to the world’s disrupted climate system.

Campbell, a Friend of The Conversation and the Director of the Research Institute for Environment and Livelihoods at Charles Darwin University, discussed the tensions surrounding development.

He wrote, “The first is the tension between developing a northern economy based primarily on export commodities, versus one based around distinctive environment, demography, knowledge and services

“The second is the perennial struggle associated with trying to achieve long-term objectives with short-term funding and even shorter electoral cycles,” he wrote.

Read his thoughts – “Is the white paper a game-changer for northern Australia?”