Terrorism and climate change are directly related

First Bernie Sanders said “climate change was directly related to the growth of terrorism.” Then Prince Charles said drought was the root cause of the Syrian conflict and current refugee crisis. Pundits everywhere leaped at the opportunity to say both claims were wrong. Who is right?

We have been studying the possible link between climate and violence for years, and we'd like to clarify what the most up-to-date science can and cannot say on this topic.

“We can't predict that a particular conflict will or will not happen. Instead, we can assess the risk that violence might occur in response to changes in the climate.”

In general, conflicts are complex events — the result of many instigating factors, not just one. When we notice that violence occurs at the same time as a major climatic event, like the war in Syria erupting at the same time as a drought, we don't ask, “Was the climactic event the cause of the conflict?” Rather, we ask “Was the climatic event a cause of the conflict?” It might be that you need both ethnic rivalries and a drought to create a conflict, and missing either key ingredient might lead to a more peaceful outcome.

Read the Los Angeles Times opinion piece - “Climate change is indeed a cause of social conflict.”