The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its seasonal forecast for the winter, and it should be a warm one throughout southern Australia and the very tips of the Top End.
After a warm autumn, particularly in the east, this winter is forecast to be warmer and drier than usual – especially over the southern half of the continent.
Not your everyday weather forecast
Seasonal forecasts are very different from your standard weather forecast for the day or week ahead.
Instead of giving exact temperatures or rainfall totals, the bureau provides probabilities of above or below average conditions. So if the bureau says there’s a 70% chance of above-average temperatures, that’s the same as saying there’s a 30% chance it will be below average.
These probabilities are estimated by looking at what’s going on in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as they strongly influence Australia’s weather, and by running a set, or “ensemble”, of forecasts through the bureau’s seasonal forecast model.
Read the piece on The Conversation by a Climate Extremes Research Fellow at the, University of Melbourne, Andrew King - “Winter warmth is in the forecast (but don’t celebrate yet).”