The day from hell: why the grid melts down in hot weather

It's 48.7 degrees outside and unbearable. “Curse climate change,” you think as the radio announcer tells you it’s hotter than the previous record maximum and at least 2 degrees hotter than today’s forecast.

The sun rises over Melbourne during a heatwave in 2018.

All you want is to get inside your house and sit under the air conditioner with an ice-cold beverage. But when you open the fridge the beer is warm, the ice is melting and the food quietly spoiling. The air con stubbornly fails to switch on.

The power has been switched off to your house, your street – in fact, your entire suburb.

“Why? Why? Why?”

Read the story from The Age by Michael Blanchard - “The day from hell: why the grid melts down in hot weather.”

20 million Americans urged to act as ‘apocalyptic hurricane’ Dorian rolls in

Hurricane Dorian, the second strongest Atlantic storm on record, has pounded the Bahamian islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama and is forecast to move dangerously close to Florida in coming days, US forecasters say.

Dorian, as seen from the International Space Station. 

Eyewitness News in the Bahamas reported late on Sunday (local time) that an eight-year-old boy had been killed in the Abaco Islands.

Ingird McIntosh told the news website her daughter had told her own two children were missing. The boy’s body was later found; it is thought he drowned.

There have been power outages across the islands as they have weathered Dorian, and communication lines are cut in and out.

Grand Bahama Island had earlier been warned to expect “catastrophic” storm surges up to seven metres above normal tide levels, with higher destructive waves, the Miami-based US National Hurricane Centre said.

Read the story from The New Daily - “20 million Americans urged to act as ‘apocalyptic hurricane’ Dorian rolls in.”

Europe heatwave sees temperatures soar to record highs as wildfires take hold in Spain

An intense heatwave has sent temperatures across Europe soaring to record highs, with central Europe forecast to hit the mid-40s on Friday.

Although heatwaves are not uncommon in Europe,
 experts say climate change is increasing their
 frequency and intensity.

New records have already been set in Poland and the Czech Republic, which both reached their highest temperatures for June on Wednesday, while Austria expects to have its warmest June on record — 4.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

In Germany, 51 observing stations broke their June temperature records this week, according to the World Meteorology Organization, but there has been some relief for northern Germany with Berlin dropping from 37C on Wednesday down to just 21C on Thursday.

Read the ABC News story - “Europe heatwave sees temperatures soar to record highs as wildfires take hold in Spain.”

Can the Paris Climate Goals Save Lives? Yes, a Lot of Them, Researchers Say

Summertime heat is forecast to become even deadlier without action to drastically reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, according to a new study. 

The Coney Island boardwalk in August. The greatest risk
of increased heat fatalities is in northern cities like New
York and Boston, a study has found.

Under the Paris climate agreement, 195 countries pledged to cut their greenhouse gas in an effort to hold global warming to two degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels. They also promised efforts to limit the temperature increase even further, to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The half-degree difference between 1.5 and two degrees may not seem like much, but, according to research published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, it could mean saving or losing thousands of lives each year in the United States alone.

Read the story from The New York Times by Kendra Pierre-Louis - “Can the Paris Climate Goals Save Lives? Yes, a Lot of Them, Researchers Say.”

Climate tool predicts end of winter by 2050

A new climate tool developed by Australian academics has forecast an end to winter as most Australians know it by 2050 and the emergence of a new season dubbed 'New Summer’.

A screenshot of the MyClimate 2050 tool.

Researchers from the Australian National University's School of Art and Design teamed up with colleagues from the ANU Climate Change Institute to develop the visual climate tool for the Australian Conservation Foundation. 

Using the online tool, people can click on thousands of locations across Australia, divided into federal electorates, to see how the local weather in their home town will change by 2050. View the tool here. https://myclimate.acf.org.au/

Read the FarmOnline story - “Climate tool predicts end of winter by 2050.”

What makes a horror fire danger day?

Textbook fire conditions are forecast over the next few days as hot northerly winds bear down on south-eastern Australia and a cold front creeps across from the west.

Fire is a part of life in Australia, but some
conditions can signal catastrophic danger.

The danger has been rated as extreme today for the Mount Lofty Ranges and Lower South East of South Australia, with the worst of the threat expected to move into Victoria's Mallee and Northern Country forecast areas on Friday.

Very high to severe fire danger has been forecast for Tasmania as the front moves through. The state is already battling several major bushfires and a total fire ban is in effect for the entire state until Monday.

There is a classic set-up that signals disastrous fire danger in Australia, so when this pattern develops it's important to sit up and pay attention.

Read the ABC News story by Kate Doyle - “What makes a horror fire danger day?”

Total fire bans as catastrophic fire conditions predicted for part of South Australia

A forecast for hot and windy conditions has prompted South Australia's Country Fire Service (CFS) to issue a catastrophic fire danger warning for the state's Mid North region today.

The SA Country Fire Service has issued a total
 fire ban warning for most of South Australia.

Total fire bans have been issued across the state with many regions predicted to hit more than 40 degrees Celsius, following high temperatures yesterday.

Port Augusta and Whyalla, in South Australia's Mid North and Eastern Eyre Peninsula regions, are expected to hit 47C and 46C respectively.

Both towns reached 46C yesterday.

Read the ABC News story - “Total fire bans as catastrophic fire conditions predicted for part of South Australia.”

More severe storms predicted for southern Queensland with large hail, wild winds

More severe thunderstorms are forecast for parts of Queensland this afternoon, with the possibility of damaging winds and large hail stones from the Gold Coast to the Wide Bay region.

Storm clouds over Redcliffe, north of Brisbane, on Friday afternoon.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 2:00pm, for damaging winds, heavy rain and large hailstones later this afternoon for people in parts of Central Highlands and Coalfields, central-west and south-east coast districts.

It said the most significant threat for damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones was for the Gold Coast, Scenic Rim and Southern Border Ranges areas.

Read the ABC News story - “More severe storms predicted for southern Queensland with large hail, wild winds.”

‘Winter is coming ... eventually' but June forecast to be dry and mild

Melburnians can leave their umbrellas at home this June with a dry and mild start to winter, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

Some sunny winter days ahead in Melbourne.

The bureau's forecast is based on current weather patterns, although for the next fortnight Victorians can expect the clear skies and sunny days to be accompanied by crisp mornings.

Senior forecaster Keris Arndt said the days are expected to average 16 to 17 degrees, with cool and light winds.

“Rug up though with cold mornings expected, dropping down to 5 degrees overnight,” Mr Arndt said.

Read the story from The Age by Emily Pearson - “‘Winter is coming ... eventually' but June forecast to be dry and mild.”

Pakistan may have just set a world heat record

High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-80s this week in New York, and I’m dreading it. But I have a plan to stay cool: just thinking of how much hotter it is in Pakistan, which is in the middle of a blistering heat wave.

The misery index is near the top of the charts in South Asia.

Temperatures reported to have cracked 50.2 degrees Celsius (122.3 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday in Nawabshah, located about 127 miles northeast of Karachi. If confirmed, that could make the measurement not just the hottest ever recorded for April in Pakistan, but the hottest ever reliably recorded for April anywhere on Earth.

“There was a 51.0°C reading reported from Santa Rosa, Mexico in April 2011 but this figure is considered of dubious reliability, so yes, the 50.2° reading is likely the hottest April temperature yet reliably observed on Earth in modern records,” Chris Burt, a weather historian, told Earther in an email.

Read the story by Brian Kahn from Earther  - “Pakistan may have just set a world heat record.”

Wet, warm start to winter for Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal forecast is predicting the start of winter to be wet and warm for large swathes of Australia.

Wetter-than-average conditions are expected across the southeast between next month and July, with daytime temperatures forecast to be warmer than usual.

The bureau’s latest three monthly climate outlook comes after a series of sweltering days across NSW, Victoria and South Australia where April temperatures soared to record highs.

Senior climatologist Lynette Bettio said the forecast reflected warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures around New Zealand and in the Tasman sea.

‘‘This may cause lower pressures over eastern Australia with a swing towards above average rainfall in the far southeast,’’ she said on Thursday.

‘‘Northern Australia is also likely to receive above average rainfall, however we are coming into the dry season across the north so we don’t need large rainfall totals to exceed the median.

‘‘Days and nights are forecast to be warmer than average across the south and cooler than average across parts of northern Australia, especially in Queensland.’’ — AAP

AAP story from The Shepparton News - “Wet, warm start to winter for Australia."

Worst fire conditions in 12 months feared for this weekend

Extreme heat and high winds forecast for this weekend could see Victoria face its worst bushfire conditions in 12 months.

Authorities are bracing for wind gusts topping 100km/h ripping across the state's parched bushland over two days that could hit 35 degrees.

“We have had hot days, and we have had windy days so far this season,” Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley said. “We haven’t had hot and windy.

“It’s extremely dry. We have not experienced serious rain across the state for about 40 days. Gardens are dry, the bush is dry, grasses are dry.

Read Liam Mannix’s story from The Age - “Worst fire conditions in 12 months feared for this weekend.”

Australian weather forecasters say autumn will be dry and warm

A dry and warmer-than-average autumn has been forecast for nearly all of Australia, worrying farmers in southern states hoping for rain after a hot summer.

The chance of above-median maximum
temperatures forecast for the Australian autumn.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest outlook, released on Thursday, has predicted higher temperatures across the country – apart from eastern New South Wales and the upper Northern Territory.

Rainfall is also forecast to be lower than usual in much of central Queensland, the southern NT, north-west Victoria and parts of Western Australia. The bureau’s initial autumn report said these areas had a 70% chance of below-median rainfall.

Agata Imielska, a climatologist from the bureau, said the dry season was a result of high-pressure systems and the weakening of the La Niña system in the Pacific Ocean.

Read the story by Naaman Zhou on The Guardian - “Australian weather forecasters say autumn will be dry and warm.”

Hot and humid: Melbourne is about to get very muggy

Melburnians are going to continue sweating for another two days, with a forecast of 39 this afternoon and muggy conditions settling in.

Melburnians were getting their exercise in early at the Tan
 before the temperature hits a high of 39 degrees. 

The humid conditions are not expected to ease until Tuesday.

Saturday night was warm and sticky, with a minimum temperature of 22.7 at 3.10am and humidity around 91 percent. 

Don't bother changing the sheets yet though. Sunday night is going to be even hotter with a predicted minimum of 27 degrees and continuing high humidity.

Read the story by Jan Gilmore from today’s Melbourne Age - “Hot and humid: Melbourne is about to get very muggy.”

Melbourne to bake through another scorcher of a day as temperatures soar

Heat-weary Melburnians have received another blow with Friday's forecast revised up to a summer scorcher of 42 degrees.

Get set to swelter, or find a way to cool off -
like this young man at the Frankston Jetty. 

The Bureau of Meteorology issued the news late on Thursday, up from the previous forecast of 39 degrees.

Melbourne will toss and turn through another hot night with the mercury unlikely to dip below 25 degrees on Thursday.

The sudden surge in temperature predicted for Friday is due to a later than expected cool change, Bureau of Metrology senior forecaster Dean Stewart said.

Read Melissa Cunningham’s story from the Melbourne Age - “Melbourne to bake through another scorcher of a day as temperatures soar.”

Hottest day in 12 months on Saturday

The hottest day in 12 months is forecast for this Saturday, with temperatures expected to rise to a sweltering 41 degrees across Melbourne.

Temperatures will soar on Saturday, but just for one day.

The surprise scorcher will follow a week of pleasant weather in the mid-20s and cool southerly breezes.

Read the Melbourne Age story by Amber Schultz - “Hottest day in 12 months on Saturday.”

Stay out of extreme heat today if possible, Shepparton residents warned

Residents are urged to avoid unnecessary outdoor work with temperatures forecast to reach 41°C in Greater Shepparton today, triggering an extreme health alert and total fire ban from emergency authorities.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Stephen King said hot air above north-west Victoria was moving across the state’s northeast, causing the extreme heat.

‘‘We should see a cool change come later in the afternoon bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms. The day will be a little bit on the windy side, which is what led to a total fire ban warning,’’ Mr King said.

‘‘Maximum temperatures for the following days will be much cooler with 29°C forecast (tomorrow) and 30°C on Thursday. Looking a bit later, Christmas Day is expected to be mostly sunny with a top of 30°C.’’

CFA District 22 duty officer John Leben said brigades were preparing for all situations and from 10 am would have an incident management team ready at the Shepparton control centre.

Mr Leben said the CFA’s main concerns were many farmers were busy harvesting grain and there was the potential for sparks from machinery to cause fast-spreading fires.

‘‘We’ve given out a joint publication from CFA and Victorian Farmers Federation called the Voluntary Grain Harvest Guide that has the best information on how to proceed on total fire ban days,’’ he said.

‘‘We ask farmers to follow the guide and where possible don’t use farm machinery on a total fire ban day.’’

Mr Leben said the general message for people in Shepparton was to be aware of where you are, if you don’t need to do something today, don’t do it. Do it on days when temperatures are less and stay safe.

‘‘Put off going to Melbourne for the Christmas shopping and be aware; monitor any fires that start in your local area,’’ he said.

Mr Leben said tomorrow was too late to have your fire plan in place — it should be enacted today — and also too late to get a permit section 40 to do work on a total fire ban day.

‘‘Refer to the Can I Can’t I Guide by the CFA for more detailed information,’’ Mr Leben said.

Greater Shepparton City Council’s community director Kaye Thomson said it was important residents kept an eye on vulnerable people, including those aged over 65, particularly those living without air conditioning, children under five, pregnant or breastfeeding women and people with existing medical conditions.

‘‘Many vulnerable people do not have friends or relatives living nearby, so if you have an elderly neighbour or live near someone you know is unwell, make sure to keep an eye on them during hot weather,’’ Ms Thomson said.

‘‘The temperature of the inside of a car can double within minutes, possibly leading to heat exhaustion and death. Please never leave kids, pets or adults in a parked car during hot weather.

‘‘We also encourage people or businesses where staff are required to work outdoors in the heat to look to alternative work activities to ensure good health of their staff. This could include starting and finishing work earlier, or working indoors if possible.’’

Story in today’s Shepparton News by Declan Martin - “Stay out of extreme heat today if possible.”

Power prices forecast to fall over next two years but AEMC warns they won't last

Power prices in Australia rose almost 11% during 2017 but a new forecast says they will fall over the next two years because of the entry of 5,300 MW of new generation capacity into the national electricity market – most of it renewable.

The Liddell power station in New South Wales. Power prices in Australia rose almost 11% during 2017. 

A new assessment from the Australian Energy Market Commission predicts power prices will fall over the next two years, beginning in mid-2018.

But the AEMC, which played a significant role in designing the Turnbull government’s proposed national energy guarantee, says the price reductions won’t last if governments don’t settle an energy policy that provides incentives for investing in dispatchable power.

Read Katherine Murphy’s story on The Guardian - “Power prices forecast to fall over next two years but AEMC warns they won't last.”

Deutsche Bank maps climate change risks for investments

Deutsche Bank has developed a tool to forecast where its investments across the globe may be impacted by natural disasters brought on by climate change.

"Factors such as sea level rise, droughts, flooding and
cyclones pose an immediate and measurable threat to
 investment portfolios," Deutsche Bank Asset Management said.

Although tools have existed in the insurance industry to model the impact of climate change, this is the first time this sort of data has been systematically applied to investments.

Deutsche Asset Management created the map with climate change intelligence firm Four Twenty Seven, covering more than one million individual locations in order to see how changes to climate will threaten its investment portfolios. The group currently has about €711 billion ($1.06 trillion) under management.

Economic modelling estimates that if carbon emissions aren't reduced throughout this century, per capita GDP will decrease by 23 percent from what it otherwise would be.

Read Cole Latimer’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “Deutsche Bank maps climate change risks for investments.”

Some parts of Australia are really crying out for a bit of rain’ as crops turn blue

The severe dry conditions affecting grain growing districts across Australia are expected to rob crops of potential and are threatening to put an unwelcome dent in the nation's grain production this season.

In parts of NSW, some farmers have watched on as some of their grain crops, in need of moisture, have turned blue.

Victoria is on track for its driest June-July on record, while Western Australia – the nation's biggest grain producer – is facing its second driest June-July on record.

After record national grain production last year put a floor under returns to farmers, despite low prices, the benefits of massive production won't be repeated this year. The dry conditions recently caused NAB to wind back its national wheat crop forecast, to 23.3 million tonnes.

And although the final month of winter is about to begin, reasonable rainfall is not on the horizon. In fact, northern Victoria has just experienced a bizarre burst of heat, with the temperature hitting 26.8 degrees at Mildura on Saturday.

Read Darren Gray’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “‘Some parts of Australia are really crying out for a bit of rain’ as crops turn blue.”