Just 1 degree changes our risk of severe weather

Current commitments won’t meet the Paris Agreement’s aspirational goals of limiting temperature—and that could make the world a degree warmer and considerably more prone to extreme weather.

Yes, just one degree and the weather
becomes more severe and extreme.

The difference between this UN goal and the actual country commitments is a mere 1 C, which may seem negligible. But a new study in Science Advances finds that even that 1-degree difference could increase the likelihood of extreme weather.

In this study, Noah Diffenbaugh, professor of earth system science at Stanford University’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences and colleagues expanded on previous work analyzing historical climate data, which demonstrated how greenhouse gas emissions have increased the probability of recording-breaking hot, wet, and dry events in the present climate.

Now, the group analyzed similar models to estimate the probability of extreme weather events in the future under two scenarios of the Paris Agreement: increases of 1.5 to 2 degrees if countries live up to their aspirations, or 2 to 3 degrees if they meet the commitments that they have made.

Read the story from Stanford University on Futurity - “Just 1 degree changes our risk of severe weather.”