A new comprehensive study of climate change has painted over 5 million pictures of humanity's potential future, and few foretell an Earth that has not severely warmed. But with immediate action and some luck, there are pathways to a tolerable climate future, according to a research team led by Tufts University.
By adapting a popular computational climate change assessment model to better account for uncertainties in human activity and the atmosphere's sensitivity to carbon dioxide levels, the researchers created a novel method for exploring the consequences of different climate change futures to better inform policy decisions. The work is detailed in a paper published today in the journal Nature Climate Change.
While modern assessment models integrate human activity and climate, within each exist uncertainties that can affect the outcome of the model. For instance, uncertainties in population growth, the economy, technological advancement, and the climate's sensitivity to greenhouse gases could all affect the predicted results of policies and laws designed to curb global warming. The improved model described in the study helped identify scenarios which led to a more tolerable climate future by exploring a wide range of variation within each uncertainty.
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