 |
Jorgen Randers elaborating
on the 2052 forecast. |
Today, in Cambridge, a meeting was held with several of
the authors of the "Glimpses" that were part of the "2052"
book by Jorgen Randers. The idea was to update the forecasts that were
published in 2012.
Randers showed the update of his model, obtained with new
data and with some modifications of the model itself. In five years, there have
been modest changes and the basic results of the initial model are confirmed.
1. Randers' model sees the growth of both the economy (in
terms of GDP) and of the population up to 2052; although the forecasted
population is less than 9 billion people, much lower than the UN predictions.
2. Randers' model doesn't see scarcity for any resource, at
least up to 2052
3. Inequality and poverty will remain as significant
problems.
4. The model clearly says that we are NOT staying below the
2 degrees limits. Renewables will be growing fast, but so will do fossil fuels
at least for another couple of decades. Randers' climate model (a different
one) doesn't produce a "climate tipping point" for the rest of the
century, but the raising temperatures will do enormous damage to the world's
economy and to people.