Australia poised to 'blow' its carbon budget

Australia will blow its carbon budget with either the Coalition’s emissions reduction targets, or those suggested by the Labor opposition, highlighting the urgent need for negative-emissions technology, analysis commissioned by the Climate Institute shows.

“Everyone is just now beginning to work out the implications of the 1.5C goal, and how hard it is to get to it,” said John Connor, chief executive of the Climate Institute.

The report found that while the policy measures needed to keep global warming to 1.5C or 2C were similar, the risks and costs associated with letting global temperatures reach 2C would be “unmanageable”.

Global warming of 1.5C would make rare events such as extreme heat waves and coral bleaching the new normal, but 2C of warming would move the world into “uncharted territory”, the report by Climate Analytics found.

Read Michael Slezak’s story in The Guardian - “Australia will need to remove CO2 from air to keep warming below 2C, climate body says.”

Record-breaking heat giving the world a 'new norm'

Subtle changes are bringing major
and significant weather outcomes.

As the world endures a third straight year of record-breaking heat, a new study has given fresh insight into what global warming is likely to mean for Australians if it is not curbed.

Using new methodology, Germany-based researchers Climate Analytics found the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees of warming – the two goals included in the Paris climate deal – would be much greater in terms of extreme events and disasters than previously believed.

Already, at about 1 degree warmer than pre-industrial times, parts of the world are experiencing more frequent and intense extreme events – heatwaves, unusual dry spells, dumping rainfall, massive coral bleaching.

The report says the upper end of current climate extremes would be "the new normal" at 1.5 degrees warming - which could be just 10 to 20 years away under the current trajectory.

Read Adam Morton’s story in the Melbourne Age - “Climate change: Warning of extreme events and a move into uncharted territory.”

Fran Kelly talks with Climate Analytics boss, Bill Hare

Since the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, the world has been aiming to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

But amid fears by vulnerable countries that two degrees was not 'safe', the Paris Climate Agreement last year tightened this global goal to 'well below two degrees while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees'.

A new report for the Climate Institute has found that this seemingly small difference in global average temperature represents a large addition of energy into the global climate system.

For example, in a world that is two degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels, the typical annual length of warm spells would be up to 60 days longer than today across northern parts of Australia, and around 20 days longer across central and southern regions. This increase would be reduced by at least 30 per cent if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Sea level is also significant. The report says two degrees Celsius will lock in a 'multi-metre' increase in sea levels over centuries—but 1.5 degrees Celsius will lead to 'declining rates of sea level rise' toward the end of this century.

Read the introduction and go to ‘listen now’ to hear the Radio National Breakfast host, Fran Kelly, talk with CEO and Managing Director/Senior Scientist and co-founder of Climate Analytics, Dr Bill Hare -“Two degrees warming 'not safe' for Australia, report finds.”

When just half a degree can make the difference

Australia could avoid punishingly long heatwaves and boost the Great Barrier Reef’s chances of survival by helping to limit global warming to 1.5℃ rather than 2℃, according to a report released by the Climate Institute today.

Australia, along with 179 other countries, has formally signed the Paris climate agreement. The deal, which has not yet come into force, commits nations to limit Earth’s warming to “well below 2℃” and to aim for 1.5℃ beyond pre-industrial temperatures.

The new research, compiled by the international agency Climate Analytics, suggests that limiting global warming to 1.5℃ rather than letting it reach 2℃ could make a significant difference to the severity of extreme weather events in Australia. Heatwaves in southern Australia would be an average of five days shorter, and the hottest days a degree cooler. In the north, hot spells would be 20-30 days shorter than the 60-day heatwaves potentially in store if warming hits 2℃.

Read the piece on The Conversation by the Editors of Environment and Energy, James Whitmore and Michael Hopkin Environment - “Keeping global warming to 1.5C, not 2C, will make a crucial difference to Australia, report says.”