'Increases are of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid': Seneca

Everyone is happy about the COP21 agreement in Paris and that there seem to be a certain willingness to avoid to go over the 2°C limit and the probable "tipping point" that will follow. But make no mistake: the task is enormously difficult. Look at these data from "The Global Carbon Project".

The blue lines are the pathways needed to have a fair chance to remain within the 2°C limit. We have to get to zero from here to 2070, but hoping in a technological miracle that, later on, will make it possible to pump away from the atmosphere some of the CO2 emitted earlier on. Otherwise, we must throttle emissions even faster.

Read the story on Cassandra’s Legacy – “Creative collapsing: a way to avoid the climate disaster.”

Paris climate agreement 'extraordinary'

The Paris climate agreement is an extraordinary achievement. It codifies the long-term goal of keeping global temperature increases below 2°C. It also sets a more ambitious aspirational target of capping global warming at 1.5°C degrees.

But this more ambitious target will be beyond our reach within a decade or two at current rates of fossil fuel use around the world.

Beyond how achievable the goals are, and at what cost they can be achieved, they are aggressive and consistent with minimising the dangerous interference of human activities on the climate system.

Read what CSIRO Scientist, and Executive Director of Global Carbon Project, Pep Canadell, and a Professor of Earth System Science at Stanford University, Rob Jackson, have written on The Conversation - “The Paris climate agreement: the real work starts now.”

Emissions start to fall despite economic growth

In a rare piece of good news on climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to fall this year as the extraordinary growth in China's greenhouse gas pollution slows to a crawl.

As politicians from 195 countries work in Paris to cut planet warming emissions, the latest assessment by scientists from the Global Carbon Project found those from industrial activity and burning fuels such as coal and oil ground to a halt in 2014, growing by just 0.6 per cent.

This year they forecast a decline of 0.6 per cent.

Read Tom Arup’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “Paris UN climate conference 2015: Emissions start to fall despite economic growth.”

Prof Michael Raupach's death a double tradgedy

The late Prof Michael Raupach - a loss.

Those who understand the climate change conversation, both scientifically and morally, are a rather rare commodity and so his or her death is a double tragedy.

And sadly the ranks of those knowledgeable about the finer aspects of climate change was further thinned with the recent death of 64-tear-old climate scientist, Professor Michael Rapach.

An ABC story headed: “Climate change scientist Professor Michael Raupach dies, colleagues hail dedicated researcher” tells of the loss.

Professor Raupach had a long career at CSIRO and was the inaugural co-chairman of the Global Carbon Project, an international project studying the natural and human influences on the global carbon cycle.

Australian coal plays its part is pushing CO2 levels higher

Chinese growth powered largely by Australian coal is been implicated in pushing global greenhouse gas emissions to the highest ever levels.

Bill McKibben in his
350.org T-shirt.

Tom Arup has written in the Melbourne Age that in 2012 the world emitted 35419.89 million tonnes of those damaging gases.

Arup wrote that 2012 record was almost certain to be bettered yet again in 2013.

Writing in his story headed: “Greenhouse gas emission hit highest ever level”, Arup quoted new data from the Global Carbon Project.

“But”, Arup wrote, “the latest data suggests the world’s emissions could be slowing. The approximate 2 per cent growth in 2012 and 2013 falls short of the 3.1 per cent average rise since 2000.

However, we should not draw too much comfort from this observation of “slowing” for emissions already in earth’s atmosphere far exceed what might be described “healthy” – the damage is already done and a two degree increase is certain and many highly credentialed climatologists are predicting a four-degree increase this century.

Carbon dioxide emissions in pre-industrial times were about 280 parts per million (ppm) and just recently we passed 400ppm, increasing the global temperature by nearly one degree.

Many, including climate change advocate, Bill McKibben, had warned for years that humanity could only prosper with emissions at 350ppm or lower and now some are suggesting that this century we could be witnessing a rise to 500 or 600ppm producing temperatures in excess of four degrees, resulting in a world on which humans would find it decidedly difficult to live.