Australia could fall apart under climate change. But there is a way to avoid it

Four years ago in December 2015, every member of the United Nations met in Paris and agreed to hold global temperature increases to two degrees Celsius, and as close as possible to 1.5C.

Four years on from the Paris Agreement, the best that
we can hope for is holding global temperature increases
 to around 1.75 degrees Celsius.

The bad news is that four years on the best that we can hope for is holding global increases to around 1.75C. We can only do that if the world moves decisively towards zero net emissions by the middle of the century.

A failure to act here, accompanied by similar paralysis in other countries, would see our grandchildren living with temperature increases of around 4C this century, and more beyond.

I have spent my life on the positive end of discussion of Australian domestic and international policy questions. 

But if effective global action on climate change fails, I fear the challenge would be beyond contemporary Australia. I fear that things would fall apart.

Read the ABC News story, first published on The Conversation, by Ross Garnaut - “Australia could fall apart under climate change. But there is a way to avoid it.”

Europe’s heat wave is about to bake the Arctic

On Friday, more temperature records are falling in Europe as the historic heat wave that brought the hottest weather ever recorded in Paris, London, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany shifts northward. In a few days, the weather system responsible for the heat wave will stretch all the way across the top of the globe.

European land surface temperatures Thursday as sensed via satellite.

It’s what this system, characterized by a strong area of high pressure aloft — often referred to as a heat dome — will do to the Arctic that has some scientists increasingly concerned.

Read the story from The Washington Post by Andrew Freedman - “Europe’s heat wave is about to bake the Arctic.”

Largest ever group of global investors call for more action to meet Paris targets

The largest ever group of institutional investors has called on governments around the world to urgently increase their efforts to meet the Paris climate change agreement goals.

 A smokestack from a coal-fired power station. Investors say
there is an ‘ambition gap’ between governments’ commitments
 and what is needed to limit the global temperature increase to 2C.

The 414 global investors - which represent US$31 trillion of assets-under-management - say they are deeply concerned about the “ambition gap” that exists between governments’ commitments and what is needed to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels.

They say that gap is increasing the physical risks from climate change and hampering investors’ ability to properly allocate trillions of dollars needed to support the much-needed transition to a low carbon economy.

Read the story by Gareth Hutchens from The Guardian - “Largest ever group of global investors call for more action to meet Paris targets.”

Nearly 30 megacities announce massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in defiance of Trump at California summit

Some of the world’s largest cities, including London, Paris and New York, have revealed they are no longer increasing their climate-harming carbon emissions — and pledged to cut them further.

Protesters gathering outside the Global
Climate Action Summit in San Francisco.

Greenhouse gas pollution from 27 of the world’s largest cities has been on a downward trajectory for five years thanks to a switch to renewable energy and cleaner transportation systems, it emerged at the Global Climate Action Summit, an event being held in San Francisco to encourage “deeper worldwide commitments” to save the environment.

Read the story by Josh Gabbatiss from the Independent - “Nearly 30 megacities announce massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in defiance of Trump at California summit.”

Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron Are Taking on Climate Change Together

It was last June that the US, the world’s second-largest emitter of carbon dioxide, announced it was leaving the Paris Climate Accord.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, says goodbye
 to French President Emmanuel Macron after a meeting
 at the Elysee Palace in Paris, April 16, 2018.

Now, the leaders of Canada and France are joining forces to combat climate change together.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and French President Emmanuel Macron met in Paris on Monday to confirm a partnership in the fight against climate change.

The countries agreed to work more closely on tackling targets laid out in the Paris Agreement, according to a press release from the Prime Minister’s Office.

Read the story by Jackie Marchildon from Global Citizen - “Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron Are Taking on Climate Change Together.”

‘Harder and riskier': Carbon removal needed if Paris goals don't rise

Greenhouse gas emission cuts must be at least 20 per cent deeper than pledged under the Paris climate accord or the world will have to begin the costly direct removal of atmospheric carbon to avoid dangerous climate change, a new study argues.

Emissions impossible? Delays in cutting emissions make it
 more likely that carbon will have to be directly captured
if dangerous climate change is to be avoided.

The Germany-based researchers examined the action needed if nations failed to deliver greater carbon curbs by 2030 but still kept global warming to under 2 degrees, compared with pre-industrial levels.

"Each tonne of CO2 we don't emit, we don't have to remove from the atmosphere afterwards in an expensive and strenuous way," said Jessica Strefler from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the lead author of the paper published on Thursday in Environmental Research Letters.

Read Peter Hannam’s story from The Age - “‘Harder and riskier': Carbon removal needed if Paris goals don't rise.”

Countries made only modest climate-change promises in Paris. They’re falling short anyway

Barely two years ago, after weeks of intense bargaining in Paris, leaders from 195 countries announced a global agreement that once had seemed impossible. For the first time, the nations of the world would band together to reduce humanity’s reliance on fossil fuels in an effort to hold off the most devastating effects of climate change.

The Eiffel Tower lights up in December 2015 with an
advocacy message for the United Nations Climate Change
 Conference in Paris.

“History will remember this day,” the secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, said amid a backdrop of diplomats cheering and hugging.

Two years later, the euphoria of Paris is colliding with the reality of the present.

Read The Washington Post story by Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney - “Countries made only modest climate-change promises in Paris. They’re falling short anyway.”

The seven megatrends that could beat global warming: 'There is reason for hope’

Everybody gets paralysed by bad news because they feel helpless,” says Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief who delivered the landmark Paris climate change agreement. “It is so in our personal lives, in our national lives and in our planetary life.”

Solar panel installation. 

But it is becoming increasingly clear that it does not need to be all bad news: a series of fast-moving global megatrends, spurred by trillion-dollar investments, indicates that humanity might be able to avert the worst impacts of global warming. From trends already at full steam, including renewable energy, to those just now hitting the big time, such as mass-market electric cars, to those just emerging, such as plant-based alternatives to meat, these trends show that greenhouse gas emissions can be halted.

“If we were seeing linear progress, I would say good, but we’re not going to make it in time,” says Figueres, now the convener of the Mission 2020 initiative, which warns that the world has only three years to get carbon emissions on a downward curve and on the way to beating global warming. “But the fact is we are seeing progress that is growing exponentially, and that is what gives me the most reason for hope.”

A wind farm off the coast of Sussex.

No one is saying the battle to avert catastrophic climate change – floods, droughts, famine, mass migrations – has been won. But these megatrends show the battle has not yet been lost, and that the tide is turning in the right direction. “The important thing is to reach a healthy balance where we recognise that we are seriously challenged, because we really have only three years left to reach the tipping point,” says Figueres. “But at the same time, the fact is we are already seeing many, many positive trends.”

Read The Guardian  story by Damian Carrington - “The seven megatrends that could beat global warming: 'There is reason for hope’.”.”

New York City aims to be carbon neutral by 2050

The day after Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris climate accord, New York mayor Bill de Blasio said the president’s home city was going to take a different path.

Subways will be expanded to draw cars from
New York's roads under a new plan for the city to
 slash emissions 

Now the US’ largest city has released a plan that aligns its future to the most ambitious target of the Paris deal – limiting global warming to 1.5C.

On Tuesday, de Blasio released a citywide plan that outlined the first three years worth of measures as the city seeks to cut emissions by 80% below 2005 levels by the middle of the century. The plan – called 1.5C: Aligning New York City with the Paris Climate Agreement – also called for the city to offset all remaining carbon pollution by 2050.

To achieve “carbon neutrality” in just over three decades, the plan says New York will lead the development of a “global protocol”. It said this could include large scale renewables, carbon sequestration and carbon offsets to account for all residual pollution.

Read the ClimateHome story by Karl Mathiesen - “New York City aims to be carbon neutral by 2050.”

Climate crunch: Australia to fail on Paris commitments without massive renewable switch

Australia will fall short of its Paris carbon reduction targets signed under Tony Abbott unless it lifts its renewable energy production to levels higher even than Labor's plan for 50 per cent green energy reliance by 2030.

Chief Scientist Alan Finkel proposed a clean energy
target which would lock in a 28 per cent reduction
 in energy-related emissions by 2030. 

The first assessment by the Australia Institute's new Climate and Energy Program, to be released on Monday, has found that unless a higher burden is placed on the more expensive process of carbon reductions in other sectors – agriculture, transport and manufacturing – then the electricity generation sector will need to aim for a renewable energy target of at least 66 per cent by 2030, and possibly as high as 75 per cent.

That is, a power generation sector where the fossil fuel component is reduced to perhaps a quarter of the size it is now.

Power generation currently accounts for 35 per cent of total emissions, which is twice as much as the next biggest contributor, fuel combustion and transport, at 18 per cent. 

Read the story by Mark Kenny in today’a Melbourne Age - “Climate crunch: Australia to fail on Paris commitments without massive renewable switch.”

Claims Australia won't meet Paris climate commitment if it keeps coal in the Clean Energy Target

Australia will not meet its Paris emissions reduction targets if the Turnbull government includes coal-fired power in any watered down climate and energy policy, environment groups and the Greens are warning.

The government is yet to make a decision on
 whether to adopt a Clean Energy Target. 

Power companies have also restated their concerns about policy uncertainty after Fairfax Media revealed the government was working on a major redesign of the Clean Energy Target proposed by Chief Scientist Alan Finkel, arguing further change would cause additional uncertainty and delay new investment.

A revised scheme would allow high-efficiency, low-emission coal-fired power plants to receive partial certificates, or credits, under a clean energy scheme.

Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce would not say on Wednesday what level the government would set for the emissions baseline in the revised target but confirmed "it will keep base load coal-fired power going”.

Read the story by James Massola and Cole Latimer in today’s Melbourne Age - “Claims Australia won't meet Paris climate commitment if it keeps coal in the Clean Energy Target.”

Warming limit of 1.2 degrees needed to save Great Barrier Reef: expert panel

Australia and the rest of the world must keep global temperature increases to 1.2 degrees - more than promised at the Paris climate talks - if the Great Barrier Reef's biodiversity is not going to deteriorate further, a panel led by former chief scientist Ian Chubb says.

Failure to meet the Paris climate targets would
be more bad news for the world's corals. 

The report by a panel of 15 scientists also called for the urgent revision of the reef's Plan to 2050 to account for "inexorable global warming”.

On Friday, federal and state environment ministers including federal minister Josh Frydenberg agreed in Melbourne to bring forward a review of the plan to start immediately rather than next year as had been planned.

In a separate report prepared by the Reef Advisory Committee, the Queensland Resources Council objected to some members calling for the giant Carmichael coal mine not to proceed.

Read Peter Hannam’s story in today’s  Melbourne Age - “Warming limit of 1.2 degrees needed to save Great Barrier Reef: expert panel.”

Trump repealed Paris insurance

From The Washington Post.

This is not ideology

(From the archives of The Monthly)

With the conclusion of the Paris climate conference in December, global warming went from being the kind of problem politicians like to being the kind of problem they hate.

For at least the past year, the conversation about climate change centred on what kind of agreement Paris would produce. And so politicians got to posture, to say quotable things, to appear world-leaderish. As the talks were about to begin, for instance, Australia’s environment minister, Greg Hunt, said it was his “deepest hope and belief” that the world would reach a strong agreement, adding that it was “a deeply personal goal and commitment, as well as a national objective”. During the talks, he revealed that he, and Australia, was acting as a “broker” to make sure that the push by island nations to limit warming to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius would at least be “referenced” in the final accord. “Clearly [it] won’t end up as a formal goal of the text,” he said, since some nations would veto it, but he was “trying to be constructive by providing a pathway” so it could be mentioned.

Read Bill McKibben’s story on The Monthly - “This is not ideology.”

Climate Progress, With or Without Trump

President Trump’s unfortunate and misguided rollback of environmental protections has led to a depressing and widespread belief that the United States can no longer meet its commitment under the Paris climate change agreement. But here’s the good news: It’s wrong.

Artwork: MIKEY BURTON 

No matter what roadblocks the White House and Congress throw up, the United States can — and I’m confident, will — meet the commitment it made in Paris in 2015 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet. Let me explain why, and why correcting the false perception is so important.

Those who believe that the Trump administration will end American leadership on climate change are making the same mistake as those who believe that it will put coal miners back to work: overestimating Washington’s ability to influence energy markets, and underestimating the role that cities, states, businesses and consumers are playing in driving down emissions on their own.

Though few people realize it, more than 250 coal plants — almost half of the total number in this country — have announced in recent years that they will close or switch to cleaner fuels. Washington isn’t putting these plants out of business; the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan hasn’t even gone into effect yet.

Read Michael Bloomberg’s story in The New York Times - “Climate Progress, With or Without Trump.”

Droughts and flooding rains already more likely as climate change plays havoc with Pacific weather

Climate change is already delivering more
extremes of wet and dry to the Pacific region.

Global warming has already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall, according to our research published today in Nature Communications. The risk will continue to rise over coming decades, even if global warming during the 21st century is restricted to 2℃ as agreed by the international community under the Paris Agreement.

In recent times, major disruptions have occurred in 1997-98, when severe drought struck Papua New Guinea, Samoa and the Solomon Islands, and in 2010-11, when rainfall caused widespread flooding in eastern Australia and severe flooding in Samoa, and drought triggered a national emergency in Tuvalu.

These rainfall disruptions are primarily driven by the El Niño/La Niña cycle, a naturally occurring phenomenon centred on the tropical Pacific. This climate variability can profoundly change rainfall patterns and intensity over the Pacific Ocean from year to year.

Rainfall belts can move hundreds and sometimes thousands of kilometres from their normal positions. This has major impacts on safety, health, livelihoods and ecosystems as a result of severe weather, drought and floods.

Read the story on The Conversation - “Droughts and flooding rains already more likely as climate change plays havoc with Pacific weather.”

India predicts it will exceed Paris renewable energy target by half

This scene could be a thing of the past in
 India as the country vows not to build
 another coal power station until 2027. 

The Indian government predicts it will vastly exceed its renewable energy target agreed at the Paris Climate Change conference last year.

A draft 10-year energy blueprint published this week predicted the country would be generating 57 per cent of its energy through renewable sources by 2027.

The target set by the conference last year was 40 per cent by 2030.

According to the document, the country is on course to achieve 275 gigawatts of energy from renewable sources by 2027 with a further 100GW generated from “other zero emission sources” like nuclear.

Read Caroline Mortimer’s story in the Independent - “India predicts it will exceed Paris renewable energy target by half.”

Neither Trump nor Turnbull can turn back the tide on renewables

‘The US has elected a man who wants to
revive the glory days of coal, oil and gas.’

The inauguration of President Trump this Saturday (Australian time) marks a radical change in the world as we know it. It ushers in the beginning of four years where progressive issues as far reaching as race equality, women’s health, nuclear and foreign policy, and of course climate change will be under sustained attack.

Less than a year after the world agreed a historic climate pact in Paris, the US – the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas polluter – elected a man who wants to revive the glory days of coal, oil and gas.

To less fanfare here at home, the Turnbull government is pursuing a similar trajectory. Ploughing through the headwinds is our resources minister, Matt Canavan, who is seeking a $100bn investment in coal and is the biggest campaigner for a new mega-coalmine in Queensland’s Galilee basin run by the Indian company Adani.

The truth is that try as they might, neither Trump nor the Australian government can turn the tide on renewable energy, nor resuscitate an ailing coal industry with a clear expiration date. This is not a moral or political case, but a purely economical one.

Read Blaire Palese’s story in The Guardian - “Neither Trump nor Turnbull can turn back the tide on renewables.”

'Increases are of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid': Seneca

Everyone is happy about the COP21 agreement in Paris and that there seem to be a certain willingness to avoid to go over the 2°C limit and the probable "tipping point" that will follow. But make no mistake: the task is enormously difficult. Look at these data from "The Global Carbon Project".

The blue lines are the pathways needed to have a fair chance to remain within the 2°C limit. We have to get to zero from here to 2070, but hoping in a technological miracle that, later on, will make it possible to pump away from the atmosphere some of the CO2 emitted earlier on. Otherwise, we must throttle emissions even faster.

Read the story on Cassandra’s Legacy – “Creative collapsing: a way to avoid the climate disaster.”

Global climate treaty suggests 'planet doesn't stand a chance'

(The general concept of Naveena is okay, but what troubles me a little are the specifics, and maybe that maybe termed “not-picking”.

The planet Naveena seems so concerned about will be fine, what is facing a serious and almost unstoppably threat, are the “Goldilocks-like” conditions which have allowed humans to thrive and prosper – Robert McLean).

If the climate pledges countries have submitted are any indication of whether the world can save itself with a global climate treaty, the planet doesn't stand a chance.

More than 140 countries have submitted plans to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on how they will reduce carbon dioxide emissions to fight climate change. These countries account for about 90 percent of global emissions. They form the basis for final treaty negotiations that will take place in Paris in December.

Climate scientists agree that in order to prevent the worst consequences, global warming must be held to within 2 degrees Celsius. The pledges submitted so far will reduce emissions by about 60 gigatons compared to business as usual, but will limit temperature rise to only 3.5 degrees Celsius, according to Climate Interactive, the non-profit tracking the progress of the global climate change movement.

Read Naveena Sadasivam’s Inside Climate News story - “Climate Treaty Forecast: Cloudy With a Chance of Disaster.”