Extreme El Nino events to double in number even with 1.5-degree warming: study

Extreme El Nino events will more than double in frequency, even with the most ambitious goals to curtail global warming, exposing large regions to severe droughts and placing coral reefs in peril, a team of scientists including Australians say.

In 2015, almost 200 nations signed the Paris Climate accord, agreeing to curb greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global temperatures warming more than 1.5-2 degrees compared with pre-industrial times. National pledges so far point to warming of closer to 3 degrees.

Read Peter Hannam’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “Extreme El Nino events to double in number even with 1.5-degree warming: study.”

Trump's exit from Paris deal signals the end of American century

President Donald Trump’s stunning words and actions to our European allies this week — culminating in reports that he will exit the historic Paris climate agreement — signal the end of the American Century.

By exiting the Paris climate deal, President Donald Trump
 is handing over global leadership to Chinese President Xi Jinping,
seen here with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in January. 

Rather than strive to maintain the United States’ position as the leader of the free world, a role we have assigned to ourselves for decades, Trump is content with America the villain — the greedy and myopic country that killed humanity’s last, best hope of avoiding catastrophic climate change. Also, by abandoning clean energy, which is the one new sector capable of actually creating millions of high wage American jobs, Trump is officially handing the economic reins over to Europe and China.

Samantha Power, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in the Obama era echoed that sentiment of Twitter Wednesday morning.

“America is responsible, to herself as well as to history, for the world environment in which she lives,” wrote publisher Henry Luce in a famous February 17, 1941 Life magazine editorial, “The American Century.”

Read Joe Romm’s story on RenewEconomy - “Trump's exit from Paris deal signals the end of American century.”

The new climate change story must be one of rapid transition

A woman and a child walk through water to
 reach their home during a king tide on Kili
in the Marshall Islands, that are just two
 meters above sea level in most places.

Climate change is like the type of film director who, having already thrown the audience into seemingly inescapable peril, keeps piling on the jeopardy. The carbon budget to stay below the Paris climate accord’s target of 1.5C of warming is all but used up, and staying below even its lower goal of 2C now requires elaborate leaps of faith.

While signatories to that agreement make decisions on national infrastructure in direct contradiction to it, the most powerful economy on Earth falls under the spell of a reality TV demagogue, at best uninterested in the issue and at worst determined to promote the industries and energy choices that will make the problem catastrophic.

We need to find a new way to engage when the highest power is won on policies picked by a snake oil salesman who’s promised with a nod and a shrug to solve the nation’s problems. On everything from climate change, to the EU and international cooperation needed for action, our reality is being shaped by people who tell tales with plot holes, continuity errors and no regard for factual grounding.

Those who care about these issues must learn to tell better tales. Yet there’s a problem. The presentation of evidence, sober argument and the appeal to reason is deeply engrained in the culture of campaigning for progressive change. Other approaches tend to leave advocates feeling insecure, suspicious or lacking confidence.

Read the story on The Guardian by Andrew Simms - “The new climate change story must be one of rapid transition.”

'Everyone is vulnerable': Trump presidency a risk to Australia's climate science

A Trump presidency in the US could have serious impacts on Australia's climate science and other research, with fears the cuts could be "CSIRO times 50".

Donald Trump's pledge to end US participation in the Paris climate agreement and expectations he will appoint climate change denier Myron Ebell to a key environment role has scientists bracing for fallout.

Australia's climate research relies on many US programs, some of which have been targeted by the Republican-controlled Congress. President Barack Obama resisted cuts to agencies such as NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration but he will leave office on January 20.

At the extreme end, a Trump administration could jeopardise global climate efforts by withholding access to data that underpins climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said David Karoly, an atmospheric scientist at Melbourne University.

Read Peter Hannam’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “'Everyone is vulnerable': Trump presidency a risk to Australia's climate science.”

The Paris train has gone and we are left forlornly standing on the platform

(Australia is not among those countries which have signed up to the Paris agreement and The Sydney Morning Herald reported early last month:

“A spokesman for Australia's Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg said the government was trying to get it ratified as soon as possible.

“The parliamentary committee was looking at the deal as part of Australia's domestic processes, he said.

“Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop insists Australia wants to ratify the agreement before the end of the year.

"The election is being blamed for the delay in tabling the agreement."

This train has left the station and Australia, one of the worst carbon dioxide emitters per capita, is left standing, forlornly, on the platform – Robert McLean)

 

The Paris train has left and
 Australia is left standing
 forlornly on the platform.

A new chapter in the world's climate talks starts this month as the Paris climate agreement enters into force on November 4, followed by the first round of formal discussions on how to turn its promises into action.

Negotiators, leaders, experts and activists will gather in Marrakech, Morocco to begin the daunting task of implementing the historic accord that seeks to avert the worst impacts of man-made climate change. The 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 22) will convene from Nov. 7-18, tasked with continuing the momentum of the Paris accord that was negotiated last year and signed into force ahead of schedule.

"The Paris agreement really represents a promise that we've made to ourselves and...to the world," said Mariana Panuncio-Feldman from the World Wildlife Fund. "Now it is time to turn that into action and that's the work we need to do in Morocco."

Read the Inside Climate News story - “Climate Talks in Morocco Aim to Set Paris Agreement in Motion.”