Cyclone the size of Debbie could be catastrophic for Gold Coast, modelling shows

A cyclone the size of Debbie could have catastrophic consequences on the Gold Coast, new modelling has shown, as climate change pushes cyclones further south and puts tens of billions of dollars worth of infrastructure at risk. 

A cyclone the size of Debbie could have
catastrophic consequences on the Gold Coast,
new modelling has shown, as climate change
 pushes cyclones further south.

Actuaries, who predict and model scenarios for banks and insurers, have warned properties could become "uninsurable" as premiums rise to meet environmental challenges. Debbie devastated northern Queensland and swept floods into NSW which caused $1 billion in damage, forced 30,000 people to evacuate and took two lives. 

Under modelling compiled by Deloitte's principal actuary Sharanjit Paddam and James Cook University, a shift in the cyclone-prone region of just three degrees would cause winds in excess of 260km/h to hit the Gold Coast and stretch as far as Brisbane, where many homes and towers do not meet cyclonic safety standards. 

The "sting in the tail" of ex-Cyclone Debbie battered the Gold Coast this week with winds half as strong as those that hit Bowen and Proserpine, along with torrential downpours.  

Read Eryk Bagshaw’s story in today’s  Melbourne Age - “Cyclone the size of Debbie could be catastrophic for Gold Coast, modelling shows.”

Arctic ice melt could trigger uncontrollable climate change at global level

Arctic scientists have warned that the increasingly rapid melting of the ice cap risks triggering 19 “tipping points” in the region that could have catastrophic consequences around the globe.

The Arctic Resilience Report found that the effects of Arctic warming could be felt as far away as the Indian Ocean, in a stark warning that changes in the region could cause uncontrollable climate change at a global level.

Temperatures in the Arctic are currently about 20C above what would be expected for the time of year, which scientists describe as “off the charts”. Sea ice is at the lowest extent ever recorded for the time of year.

“The warning signals are getting louder,” said Marcus Carson of the Stockholm Environment Institute and one of the lead authors of the report. “[These developments] also make the potential for triggering [tipping points] and feedback loops much larger.”

Read The Guardian story - “Arctic ice melt could trigger uncontrollable climate change at global level.”

U.S. Democratic Party aligns with climate emergency

Last weekend in Orlando the platform committee of the Democratic Party added language into their platform acknowledging the official position of the Democratic Party to be that we are in a global climate emergency. 

Further, the platform acknowledges the scale of the threat to be so large that it will require a leadership response from our country on the scale of our national mobilization to confront the threat of fascism during WWII.  The platform language I offered through an amendment entitled, "Global Climate Leadership", explicitly acknowledges that anything short of that will bring catastrophic consequences to civilization:

Democrats believe it would be a grave mistake for the United States to wait for another nation to lead the world in combating the global climate emergency. In fact, we must move first in launching a green industrial revolution, because that is the key to getting others to follow; and because it is in our own national interest to do so. Just as America’s greatest generation led the effort to defeat the Axis Powers during World War II, so must our generation now lead a World War II-type national mobilization to save civilization from catastrophic consequences.

Adopting this language in our platform is courageous.  It is bold.  It could be said that with the declaration, the Democratic Party has actually stepped out in front of the climate movement in its articulation of the threat, which it seems worthy to note, is appropriately placed as the closing paragraph of the entire platform.

Read Russell Greene’s story on Climate Code Red - “Finding the courage to face the climate emergency: Democratic Party platform recognises crisis.”

We need eloquent, charismatic and courageous leadership to avoid climate change

Leadership that is eloquent, charismatic and courageous is critical, especially if humanity is to avoid the worst of climate change.

Nature abhors a vacuum and at local, state, federal and national levels we have just that, a vacuum (mostly) of leadership that ascribes to the science that articulates the damage done by humans to Earth’s atmosphere and along with that the certain resultant catastrophic consequences.

Those who understand climate science and call for action may well be leaders in their respective fields, but are not emboldened sufficiently to step into the political arena and impress populist values with their views. It’s in colloquial terms, “not their bag”.

Leaders at most levels are simply too addicted to values and ideas that are a consequence of the energy-rich fossil fuel era and so with thinking hobbled to thoughts that humanity’s future security is unquestionably linked to profit and growth, they are unable to see that human life on Earth can be done differently.

Some leaders, of course, would like to do much more. but faced with populist opinion reinforced by myths propagated by those addicted to and entrenched in 20^th Century values and ideas, among them and primarily the fossil fuels industry and the infrastructure it has spawned, find their positions tenuous and personal political survival threatened.

“Populist” equates with democracy and although many believe we live in a democracy, it is, in fact, something else, maybe an oligarchy that sees just a few corporations (less than 150 trans-national corporations) with sophisticated public relations departments (read propaganda) that have convinced the world that what they are offering is democracy, when it is something else; something that ensures their profit and growth.

It was the Zurich-based Swiss Federal Institute of Technology that looked at 37 million companies and investors worldwide and analyzed all 43,060 transnational corporations and share ownerships linking them.

They built a model of who owns what and what their revenues are and mapped the whole edifice of economic power; a power that in reality will have be challenged and unseated if the world is to ever address climate change.

Those 147 trans-national corporations have pulled some remarkably effective and influential strings, but they have overlooked one, and probably the most important, nature.

It’s a power they can not control and unless they are prepared to listen to the “eloquent, charismatic and courageous” the edifice they have built on fossil fuels will soon come crashing down.