More drought in Australia's future as weather patterns change

The Indian Ocean weather pattern that contributed to eastern Australia's intense drought and bushfires is becoming more common because of climate change - and can reach worse extremes.

Sheep on the parched lake floor of the Burrendong Dam.
The reservoir, one of the largest in the Murray Darling Basin,
was down to about 1 per cent full during the worst of the recent drought.

Using coral cores drawn from Indonesian islands, an international research team led by Australians reconstructed climatic conditions in the Indian Ocean over more than 500 years. Of particular interest was a phenomenon known as the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Read the story from The Age by Peter Hannam - “More drought in Australia's future as weather patterns change.”

Arctic ice melt could trigger uncontrollable climate change at global level

Arctic scientists have warned that the increasingly rapid melting of the ice cap risks triggering 19 “tipping points” in the region that could have catastrophic consequences around the globe.

The Arctic Resilience Report found that the effects of Arctic warming could be felt as far away as the Indian Ocean, in a stark warning that changes in the region could cause uncontrollable climate change at a global level.

Temperatures in the Arctic are currently about 20C above what would be expected for the time of year, which scientists describe as “off the charts”. Sea ice is at the lowest extent ever recorded for the time of year.

“The warning signals are getting louder,” said Marcus Carson of the Stockholm Environment Institute and one of the lead authors of the report. “[These developments] also make the potential for triggering [tipping points] and feedback loops much larger.”

Read The Guardian story - “Arctic ice melt could trigger uncontrollable climate change at global level.”

'Outlook declines' for the GV, but no mention of climate change

U

nder the heading of “Outlook declines”, Darren Linton writes in today’s Shepparton News about “Record heatwave points to dry October, a blow for farmers, orchardists”.

The rainfall for the Goulburn Valley has deteriorated dramatically forcing the Bureau of Meteorology to issue a special update for October to December.

After a record heatwave to start October the bureau reissued its outlook and it makes disturbing reading especially for farmers and orchardist,

The outlook released in late September put the chance of receiving the average October-December rainfall of 107 mm at 50-50, but that has now been slashed to 35 per cent around Shepparton and as low as 25 per cent to the north and across the border.

October will now be particularly dry. The long-term average of 34 mm is now deemed “very unlikely” with only a 15 per cent change of 25 mm and only a 50/50 chance of 10 mm.

November is still a 50/50 chance for average rainfall of 37 mm, but overall is for hotter and drier conditions.

The release of the climate outlook special update was due to a significant shift upwards towards a drier October nation-wide related to the emerging positive Indian Ocean Dipole reinforcing the strong El Niño.

September rainfall was the third driest on record for Australia and very low rainfall has been received for the past 12 months in most of Victoria.

Across most of south-east Australia there is a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier October and high chances of warmer days and nights south of the tropics.

The rainfall outlook has shifted up to 40 percentage points in some area towards a drier October.

“I think people are not surprised to see it go to that level, but more with the sudden change in 10 days,” Goulburn-Murray Water northern Victoria systems resources manager Mark Bailey said.

Dr Bailey said the conservative approach to setting expectations had held customers in good stead so far this season, with general improvement in water determinations despite declining inflows.

Inflows in the Goulburn system storages from July-September were 30 per cent of the long-term average, a figure Dr Bailey said would be exceeded in 95 years out of 100.

“That is saying it is pretty dry,” he said, which is now likely to continue through October.

“We would have expected a bit during October, it is usually one of our productive months,” Dr Bailey said.

(Not a word that the current situation is linked in any way to climate change,reflecting a recent observation by “Climate Code Red” co-author David Spratt who pointed out that several reports in the national media about record temperatures in Victoria, a measurable lack of rain and devastating bushfires also never once mentioned climate change.)