The BOM outlook for the weather over the next three months is ‘neutral’ – here’s what that really means.

Today the Bureau of Meteorology releases its end-of-month seasonal outlook for April to June, updating the initial outlook released on March 15. But you might not have seen much media coverage of it, because we’re not seeing big swings towards the attention-grabbing climate drivers like El Niño or the Indian Ocean Dipole, which can dominate Australia’s climate.

The rainfall outlook map for April–June 2018, issued March 15 (left), shows
most of Australia in the neutral/50:50 range (so coloured white). In contrast, the rainfall outlook map for October 2015 (right) shows a low chance of exceeding the
median (so brown dominates the map).

There are times when the main drivers of our climate are not strong enough to push us towards a season dominated by unusually wet or dry, or hot or cool, weather. This can also happen if different climate drivers are having opposite impacts – they can cancel each other out.

Without a strong push one way or another, our outlook maps are often white. This is a neutral or “50:50” outlook map.

Read the piece on The Conversation - “The BOM outlook for the weather over the next three months is ‘neutral’ – here’s what that really means.”

AEMO looks forward. Where does AEMC look?

Whoever was responsible for picking Audrey Zibelman to be CEO of the Australian Energy Market Operator has probably done more to improve the outlook for decarbonised electricity supply at an efficient price in Australia than just about anyone else.

Audrey Zibelman 

Leadership matters.

The AEMO started 2017 facing black marks for its role in the 2016 South Australian blackout and for seeming to have no idea about what to do to improve the electricity reliability and price outlook.

The AEMO at that time seemed to walk hand in hand with the Australian Energy Market Commission, which sets the rules of the market that AEMO operates.

This was despite the off and sometimes on the record complaints about the perception that the AEMC acted as a wet blanket on reform. The delayed introduction of the five-minute settlement is an obvious example.

Read the RenewEconomy story by David Leitch - “AEMO looks forward. Where does AEMC look?”

Gas is the future of energy, World Oil report says

Renewable energy will have enormous growth but gas – and shale oil – will be the power source of the future, the latest World Oil Outlook report states.

The shale oil industry in the United States could
 undo the price hikes caused by the OPEC
production cut. 

The World Oil Outlook 2017 report, developed by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, stated renewable energy will be the fastest-growing power source to 2040, with an expected 6.8 percent annualised growth rate.

Shale oil has also been put forward as the most important non-OPEC energy source, with gas accounting for a growing percentage of energy consumption.

For the most part, coal's usage will fall.

Read Cole Latimer’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “Gas is the future of energy, World Oil report says.”

Dry outlook for Darling River and Menindee Lakes, as ecologists focus on fish survival

Water authorities in far west NSW say the Menindee Lakes have received a surprise 30-gigalitre flow in recent weeks, but the outlook is still dry for the lakes and the Darling River.

Murray Cod larvae from last year's major Murray
Cod spawning in the Darling River.

The lakes, which feed the Darling downstream and provide water for the city of Broken Hill, have dropped to about 45 per cent of capacity.

The system filled up over winter last year, but a year on, WaterNSW spokesman Tony Webber said authorities were planning for several months of low to no flows.

"I think it's fair to say that we're anticipating that this low flow situation is going to persevere for the time being. That's certainly how our planning is," Mr Webber said.

Read the ABC News story - “Dry outlook for Darling River and Menindee Lakes, as ecologists focus on fish survival.”