‘Summer-like' heat to nudge late-season heat records across south-east

A burst of heat from inland Australia is set to sweep across the country's south-east in coming days, challenging records for this late in the year, meteorologists said.

Wind whips up the dust over a dry farm in the Deniliquin region.

"Summer-like conditions will linger for several days," Kim Westcott, a meteorologist with Weatherzone, said.

The low-pressure trough will transport to the south-eastern states some of the warmth that has been baking north-western WA. That region set late-season Australian heat records of just shy of 46 degrees on both March 28 and 29.

Read Peter Hannam’s story from The Age - “‘Summer-like' heat to nudge late-season heat records across south-east.”

Victoria weather: Heavy rain, floods forecast across state as Premier warns of 'challenging period’

Victorians have been warned to prepare for a "very challenging period" over coming days, as unprecedented severe weather threatens public safety, Premier Daniel Andrews says.

More than 100mm could fall across Melbourne in the coming days.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has warned the state could be drenched with up to three times its monthly rainfall on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

State and local emergency control centres have been activated as emergency services work on a four-day plan to cope with possible flash flooding.

Mr Andrews told Parliament people must follow official warnings.

Read the ABC News story - “Victoria weather: Heavy rain, floods forecast across state as Premier warns of 'challenging period’.”

Cool weather before heat and potential rain

A subtle change behind a string of hot days is what has caused volatile temperatures across the region, but temperatures will remain at a low level in coming days.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Richard Carlyon.

Day time temperatures are soon likely to be warmer than average across the state, but Bureau of Meteorology climatologists say Greater Shepparton is in for a cooler change before the heat, humidity and potential rain sets in next week.

BoM senior forecaster Richard Carlyon said the region would manage to stay dry throughout the weekend and early next week, with a potential front pushing through on Tuesday.

‘‘A strong high pressure system south of the bite is very slowly moving and it’s just drifting towards us, and what it means is that we’re having fairly similar weather for the next three or four days,’’ Mr Carlyon said.

‘‘The next few days are pretty average, before we see showers developing on late Tuesday.’’

While rainfall across Australia for the spring period is showing no particular shift towards a wetter or dryer period, rainfall totals for spring in northern Victoria have been well below average.

Shepparton totals have reached only 8 mm for October, significantly lower than the average of 31 mm with the month almost over.

Mr Carlyon said while rainfall was forecast for the region from Tuesday, it would unlikely reach any significant falls to meet the average.

Across the far northern coast of Australia, as well as the south-east states, daytime and overnight temperatures and likely to be warmer than average in the next couple of months, according to BoM senior hydrologist Paul Feikema.

Mr Feikema said there were a number of climate drivers that tipped towards both dryer and wetter than average temperatures.

After one of the driest and warmest winters on record for much of Australia, he said spring had also started off dry for the majority of the country.

‘‘Some places will have above average, some below depending on the local weather forecast,’’ he said.

‘‘Days and nights are likely to remain above average for large parts of south-east Australia. 

Vegetation that grew in the wet of 2016 is now drying out, raising bushfire potential for many parts of Australia, which we have already witnessed.’’

Story from the Shepparton News by Rhiannon Tuffield - “Cool weather before heat and potential rain.”