35 degree days make blackouts more likely, but new power stations won’t help

Summer is here with a vengeance. On hot days it’s very likely something in the power system will break and cause someone to lose power. And the weather bureau expects this summer to be hotter and drier than average – so your chances of losing power will be higher than normal.

Whether your energy comes from coal or renewable sources
 isn’t likely to make a difference to your risk of a blackout this summer.

We’ve analysed outage data from the electricity distribution networks over the past nine years and linked it to Bureau of Meteorology maximum daily temperature data for each distribution network. The findings are stark: customers are without power for 3.5 times longer on days over 35 degrees than on days below 35.

Read the piece from The Conversation - “35 degree days make blackouts more likely, but new power stations won’t help.”

Cool weather before heat and potential rain

A subtle change behind a string of hot days is what has caused volatile temperatures across the region, but temperatures will remain at a low level in coming days.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Richard Carlyon.

Day time temperatures are soon likely to be warmer than average across the state, but Bureau of Meteorology climatologists say Greater Shepparton is in for a cooler change before the heat, humidity and potential rain sets in next week.

BoM senior forecaster Richard Carlyon said the region would manage to stay dry throughout the weekend and early next week, with a potential front pushing through on Tuesday.

‘‘A strong high pressure system south of the bite is very slowly moving and it’s just drifting towards us, and what it means is that we’re having fairly similar weather for the next three or four days,’’ Mr Carlyon said.

‘‘The next few days are pretty average, before we see showers developing on late Tuesday.’’

While rainfall across Australia for the spring period is showing no particular shift towards a wetter or dryer period, rainfall totals for spring in northern Victoria have been well below average.

Shepparton totals have reached only 8 mm for October, significantly lower than the average of 31 mm with the month almost over.

Mr Carlyon said while rainfall was forecast for the region from Tuesday, it would unlikely reach any significant falls to meet the average.

Across the far northern coast of Australia, as well as the south-east states, daytime and overnight temperatures and likely to be warmer than average in the next couple of months, according to BoM senior hydrologist Paul Feikema.

Mr Feikema said there were a number of climate drivers that tipped towards both dryer and wetter than average temperatures.

After one of the driest and warmest winters on record for much of Australia, he said spring had also started off dry for the majority of the country.

‘‘Some places will have above average, some below depending on the local weather forecast,’’ he said.

‘‘Days and nights are likely to remain above average for large parts of south-east Australia. 

Vegetation that grew in the wet of 2016 is now drying out, raising bushfire potential for many parts of Australia, which we have already witnessed.’’

Story from the Shepparton News by Rhiannon Tuffield - “Cool weather before heat and potential rain.”

BOM drops a special climate statement explaining why it was so hot in September

Locations with 50 or more years
of observations where the highest
daily maximum temperature
record was broken.

We all lived through it, but the Bureau of Meteorology has made it official that September 2017 had some significantly hot days.

It was so significant that BOM released a Special Climate Statement for only the fourth time this year.

These in-depth documents are designed to give more information when unusual weather events occur in Australia.

"We broke quite a number of September temperature records," said Agata Imielska, a senior BOM climatologist and one of the key contributors behind the statement.

Read Kate Doyle’s ABC News story -“BOM drops a special climate statement explaining why it was so hot in September.”

Phoenix initiative helps residents stay safe in extreme heat

Blazing hot days are common in Arizona and they can be deadly. On average, extreme heat causes more than a hundred deaths in the state each year.

To provide relief in the city of Phoenix, community organizations offer residents air-conditioned spaces to cool off. Some also provide water, and donated items such as sunscreen.

Hammett: “Some examples here are Salvation Army, churches … our libraries, our senior centers.”

Michael Hammett oversees the Heat Relief Network. He says the network has existed for years but many people do not know about it.

Read the Yale Climate Connections story - “Phoenix initiative helps residents stay safe in extreme heat.”

Suddenly next summer: What happens when a heatwave hits in a post-Hazelwood world?

'Extreme heat is a test. It tests people and the systems they rely on, not least the electricity system. So in a post-Hazelwood world, how will the national electricity grid cope during hot days as we seek comfort by cranking up our cooling systems?'

It's a summer's day in 2018, and it's bloody hot. It threatens to be the fourth day in a row the mercury will soar above 40 degrees.

It's still early morning, but power-hungry air-conditioners are already working hard in Melbourne and across the eastern seaboard.

In the mid-1990s, about a quarter of Australians artificially cooled their homes. It's now more than half, with Victorians gobbling up about 80 per cent more electricity on a hot day.

Read Adam Morton’s story in the Melbourne Age - “Suddenly next summer: What happens when a heatwave hits in a post-Hazelwood world?”

Mungindi robbed of state heat title

In late February Moree was awarded the title for most consecutive 35-degree days in New South Wales, but what happened to Mungindi who was leading the race down the home straight? Were they robbed?

We investigate.

The scene was set in mid-December when word was out an attempt to beat Bourke's heat record was on. Bourke was the current title holder and its 50 consecutive 35-degree days was up for grabs. 

After some tough low-altitude training in Western Australia's Marble Bar, registered competitors settled in for a short Christmas break before the race which was due to start on Boxing Day.

Come December 26th, Mungindi caught the others off-guard, reaching 35 degrees that afternoon. Moree and Walgett were apparently still sleeping off their pudding and only reached 33-34 degrees and as a result, had some catching up to do. The three towns from the northwestern NSW then battled it out through the rest of December, all of January and half of February, Mungindi had a slim lead all the way.

On February 13th Walgett was out (only reaching 33 degrees), falling short of Bourke’s record by just two days.

The next day Mungindi broke the record, one day ahead of Moree, and officially became the new state heat champion - 51 consecutive days of at least 35 degrees. All Mungindi needed to do now was stay hotter than Moree until a strong cool change arrived a few days later.

Mungindi loses its heat record.

On February 15th, when temperatures were rising to the mid 30s, something drastic happened. Was it a planned power outage? Was it an unplanned power outage? Was it sabotage? Mungindi's automated weather station had stopped recording. There were rumours suggesting a Moree spy was among the celebrations in Mungindi and pulled the weather station's cable from the power point. The official findings have never been publicly announced. 

On that day Moree was declared joint leader.

The race continued and Moree (and Mungindi) added three more hot days before that long-awaited cooler change arrived. 

Moree had officially broken Mungindi’s record and was the new state title holder with 54 consecutive 35-degree days.

Our investigation found that on February 15th every location within 150 kilometres of Mungindi had reached at least 35 degrees, hence Mungindi could claim the unofficial state title, 55 days.

Story from WeatherZone.