Dengue fever: Entire world’s population to be at risk, climate change to blame

A billion more people will be newly exposed to mosquito-borne diseases like dengue fever as global warming hits its stride over the next 60 years, according to modelling by US researchers.

Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that carries dengue, chikungunya,
Zika viruses, coming to a warming neighbourhood near you

The research team led by Sadie J. Ryan of the University of Florida, and global change biologist Dr Colin J. Carlson at Georgetown University, studied what would happen if the two most common disease-carrying mosquitoes – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus – spread to places that become warmer and more humid with climate change.

The net result is that most of the world’s population will become vulnerable to infection – either sporadically or seasonally – by the dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses between now and 2080.

Read the story The New Daily by John Elder - “Dengue fever: Entire world’s population to be at risk, climate change to blame.”

‘A lemon or a winner': Public still in the dark on NEG modelling

Independent analysts remain in the dark about the full calculations behind the Turnbull government's flagship energy plan, with a Senate call to release the modelling turning up a blank.

Mt Piper Power Station, near Lithgow: energy
policy is being fiercely debated this week.

The government on Tuesday tabled its response to a Greens request for the disclosure of the economic modelling underpinning the National Energy Guarantee (NEG).

Read the story from The Sydney Morning Herald by Peter Hannam - “‘A lemon or a winner': Public still in the dark on NEG modelling.”

Call for the release of NEG modelling

A call has been made by a group of energy researchers for the release of National Energy Guarantee (NEG) modelling.

Twenty three energy researchers from 11 Institutions, representing many decades of combined experience with energy markets and energy policy, are concerned that the carbon accounting and the reliability mechanisms of the NEG are poorly understood.

Beyond that details of the NEG have not received adequate review by Australia’s community of energy researchers.

Here is a copy of the request:

The Hon. Guy Barnett MP

The Hon. Lily D'Ambrosio

The Hon. Don Harwin MLC

The Hon. Daniel van Holst Pellekaan MP

The Hon. Dr Anthony Lynham MP

Mr Shane Rattenbury MLA

We, the undersigned, representing many decades of combined experience with energy markets and energy

policy, are concerned that the carbon accounting and the reliability mechanisms of the NEG are poorly

understood and have not received adequate review by Australia’s community of energy researchers.

The proposed National Energy Guarantee is the most significant change to the National Electricity Market

since the implementation of the National Electricity Laws in 1996.

While there is much discussion in the public sphere about the adequacy of the emissions targets, we recognise

that matter is not within the domain of the CoAG Energy Council. This letter is concerned solely with the

modelling of the twin mechanisms intended to address the trilemma of reduced emissions, high reliability and

low energy costs.

The Energy Security Board’s Final Decision Paper refers to an ACIL Allen study which purports to validate the

NEG design. The paper provides insufficient detail on the assumptions, methodology and results of the study

and indeed it is difficult to reconcile the claims with our own understanding of energy market dynamics and

the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan.

We call on the Ministers to request the ESB to release the ACIL Allen modelling in full, including all

assumptions that have a bearing on the modelling of price effects, and to provide access to the modelling

team, so that we may have the opportunity to peer review the work.

Sincerely,

Dr Martin Belusko

Senior Research Fellow Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia

Dr Stephen Berry

Research Fellow, Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia

Prof. John Boland

Professor of Environmental Mathematics, University of South Australia

Dr Anna Bruce

Senior Lecturer, School of PV and Renewable Energy Engineering

Research Coordinator (Engineering), Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets

University of New South Wales

Dr Roger Dargaville

Senior Lecturer, Renewable Energy, Monash University

Dr Mark Diesendorf

Honorary A/Professor, University of New South Wales

Emeritus Prof. John Foster

School of Economics, The University of Queensland

Dr Evan Franklin

Senior Lecturer, University of Tasmania

Simon Holmes à Court

Senior Advisor, Climate and Energy College, Melbourne University

Prof. Frank Jotzo

 Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

Dr Scott Kelly

Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS

Dr Ariel Liebman

Senior Lecturer, Energy Informatics, Monash University

Salim Mazouz

 Research Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU

Iain MacGill

Associate Professor, School of Electrical Engineering and Communications

Joint Director (Engineering), Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets

University of New South Wales

Dylan McConnell

Researcher, Climate and Energy College, Melbourne University

Dr Franziska Mey

Senior Research Consultant at the Institute of Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

A/Prof. Bruce Mountain

 Director, Victorian Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University

Alan Pears AM

Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT

A/Prof Peter Pudney

Associate Research Professor of Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of South Australia

Prof. John Quiggin

School of Economics, The University of Queensland

Prof. Chris Riedy

Professor of Sustainability Governance, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

Dr Hugh Saddler

 Honorary A/Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU

Dr Liam Wagner

 Lecturer in Economics, Griffith Business School, Griffith University

Developing new Galilee Basin coalmines will cost 12,500 jobs, analysis shows

Developing new coalmines in the Galilee Basin would cost 12,500 jobs in existing coalmining regions and replace only two in three workers, modelling by the Australia Institute shows.

An open-cut mine in the Hunter Valley. If the Galilee Basin produces
150m tonnes of coal a year, then existing coal regions will likely
 curtail production by 115m tonnes a year, analysis shows.

Job creation has long been an aggressive rallying call for supporters of Adani’s Carmichael megamine and other proposals in the untapped Galilee Basin, which combined would produce 150m tonnes of thermal coal each year.

But the Australia Institute report concludes that even if Australia’s thermal coal exports increase, and the world does not act on climate change, highly automated new mines in the Galilee would on balance cost the industry jobs.

The modelling is based on 2017 analysis by consultants Wood Mackenzie, who work closely with the mining industry. Wood Mackenzie said huge volumes of coal mined in the Galilee would curtail established operations in the Hunter Valley, Bowen Basin and Surat Basin regions.

Read the story by Ben Smee from The Guardian - “Developing new Galilee Basin coalmines will cost 12,500 jobs, analysis shows.”

‘Worst fears': States prepare to highlight the negatives in Turnbull's energy plan

The Turnbull government's national energy guarantee is set for a rocky reception when energy ministers meet in Hobart, with one state declaring new modelling confirmed its "worst fears", and another saying it was "deeply disappointing”.

Sunrise or sunset for coal-fired power: NEG would
 extend the life of aging fossil fuel plants. 

Federal Environment and Energy minister Josh Frydenberg will front the dinner on Thursday night and is expected to release a paper during Friday's talks that has yet to be shared with state and territory counterparts.

The federal government provided a summary of its modelling for the energy guarantee on Wednesday, claiming wholesale prices would be as much as 23 percent lower than business usual under the dual "guarantee" to cut emissions while improving reliability of the nation's ailing electricity grid.

South Australia Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis indicated his state would reject the plan, which needs consensus from all parties to proceed. For historical reasons, changes to the National Electricity Market also need to pass the SA parliament.

Read Peter Hannam’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “‘Worst fears': States prepare to highlight the negatives in Turnbull's energy plan.”

Josh Frydenberg releases new modelling to back energy guarantee savings claims

The Turnbull government will ramp up pressure on the states and the federal opposition to support its national energy guarantee with new modelling confirming it would generate $120 per year in savings for households from 2020.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (right) and Energy Minister
Josh Frydenberg are trying to ramp up pressure on the states
to support the national energy guarantee. 

A coalition of 15 business, and environmental groups, as well as the Australian Council of Trade Unions have also backed the call for compromise to deliver the national energy guarantee, citing the need for investment certainty for the electricity sector.

Businesses could realise even larger savings than households under the proposed energy guarantee because of the reduction in wholesale energy prices - which could be 23 percent lower compared to business as usual - according to the new modelling by Frontier Economics that was commissioned by the Energy Security Board. 

The household savings figure of $120 is slightly more than the original figure of $115 suggested when the guarantee was unveiled in October.

Read the story by James Massola in today’s Melbourne Age - “Josh Frydenberg releases new modelling to back energy guarantee savings claims.”