Why Half a Degree of Global Warming Is a Big Deal

The Earth has already warmed 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 19th century. Now, a major new United Nations report has looked at the consequences of jumping to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius.

Half a degree may not sound like much. But as the report details, even that much warming could expose tens of millions more people worldwide to life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding. Half a degree may mean the difference between a world with coral reefs and Arctic summer sea ice and a world without them.

Read the story by Brad Plumer and Nadja Popovich from The New York Times - “Why Half a Degree of Global Warming Is a Big Deal.”

Water shortages to be key environmental challenge of the century, Nasa warns

Water shortages are likely to be the key environmental challenge of this century, scientists from Nasa have warned, as new data has revealed a drying-out of swaths of the globe between the tropics and the high latitudes, with 19 hotspots where water depletion has been dramatic.

The Theewaterskloof Dam, a key source of water supply to Cape
 Town, South Africa ahead of the current water crisis.

Areas in northern and eastern India, the Middle East, California and Australia are among the hotspots where overuse of water resources has caused a serious decline in the availability of freshwater that is already causing problems. Without strong action by governments to preserve water the situation in these areas is likely to worsen.

Read Fiona Harvey’s story from The Guardian - “Water shortages to be key environmental challenge of the century, Nasa warns.”

Climate change: Jordan water crisis 'to get worse’

Water shortages in Jordan are likely to get far worse over the coming years, according to a recent study by Stanford University.

Water reservoirs in Jordan are currently at a record low.

The researchers said that, in the absence of international climate policy action, the country could receive 30 percent less rainfall by 2100 and annual temperatures could increase by 4.5 Celsius.

This would double the number and duration of droughts when compared with the 1981-2010 period, raising concerns in a country already dealing with water shortages.

Read the Al-Jazeera story - “Climate change: Jordan water crisis 'to get worse’.”

Prediction Melbourne could begin to run short of water by 2028

Melbourne could begin to experience chronic water shortages within about a decade, even if the desalination plant is cranked up to its full capacity, as climate change and population growth rapidly deplete the city's dams.

Demand for water could begin to exceed supply by 2028, triggering tough water restrictions and a costly 25 per cent boost to the capacity of the desalination plant, under a worst-case scenario modelled by Melbourne's water corporations.

This scenario suggests the city must take major steps in the next few years to guard Melbourne's water storages from reaching dangerously low levels that could put it on a permanent drought footing.

Read the Melbourne Age story - “Prediction Melbourne could begin to run short of water by 2028.”

Applying foresight to shape a city's future

‘Global warming has only made life worse – temperatures continue to rise, water shortages increase. Health indicators worsen’

How people conceive of their city’s future is important
in shaping how the city’s future unfolds.

Mayors, CEOs, citizens and policy analysts are working to create uplifting images of their future cities. Their intended result is clear unifying visions for the city futures they desire.

So how can foresight make a difference in cities?

The first way foresight improves cities is through visioning projects. The City of Greater Geelong is aiming to look ahead 20 to 30 years through its first visioning and strategy project, Geelong 2040. Interviewed about this, Geelong City CEO Kelvin Spiller said:

Geelong 2040 will be a city-changing experience, for the long-term betterment of its residents and stakeholders. City visioning will be supported by community engagement. In the same manner that corporate engagement helps the carriage of new innovations upwards, visioning can do this for the planning of urban areas.

Perhaps longer-term visioning should be legislated to encourage managers to help cascade preferences upward and not only into the city vision.

Read the views of Futurist from the University of the Sunshine Coast, Colin Russo, on The Conversation - “A tale of five cities: applying foresight to shape their futures.”

'The big one' - El Nino event almost certain

W

riting in today’s Melbourne Age, Peter Hannam says the world is headed into a major drought-bringing El Nino event.

His story - “World headed for an El Nino and it could be a big one, scientists say” – warns that the El Nino will lift global temperatures and lead to bushfires and water shortages in eastern Australia.

“Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are recording anomalies of more than 1 degree, a combination that has not previously been seen in weekly data going back to 1991, according to a bureau climate forecaster,” he writes.