Understanding risk, accepting climate change

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here’s a bad flu going around this year… but I’m healthy enough to not have to worry.”

“Speed is the biggest contributor to fatal road accidents… but I’m a good driver and can handle the conditions.”

“Yes, climate change is happening… but it won’t affect me.”

Sound familiar? These statements are what’s known as an ‘optimism bias’ – a cognitive bias that causes people to believe that they are at less risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others.

Read the CSRIO story - “What’s with our attitude? Australians and climate change.”

World is on track for four degree temperature increase by century's end

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ased on current greenhouse gas emissions, the world is on track for 4C warming by 2100 - well beyond the internationally agreed guardrail of 2C.

To keep warming below 2C, we need to either reduce our emissions, or take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

Two papers published today investigate our ability to limit global warming and reverse the impacts of climate change. The first, published in Nature Communications, shows that to limit warming below 2C we will have to remove some carbon from the atmosphere, no matter how strongly we reduce emissions.

The second, in Nature Climate Change, shows that even if we can remove enough CO2 to keep warming below 2C, it would not restore the oceans to the state they were in before we began altering the atmosphere.

Read the story on The Conversation by Senior Research Scientist, Marine and Atmospheric Research at CSIRO, Richard Matear, and Senior Research Scientist, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship at CSIRO, Andrew Lenton  - “Reducing emissions alone won’t stop climate change: new research”.

Innovation needed to tackle climate change, but don't look to Australia for answers

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hen I say ‘science’ you say ‘beaker’. When I say ‘science’ you say ‘white lab coats’. When I say ‘science’ you say ‘microscopes’. Why is it so few people say ‘technology’ and ‘innovation’ and ‘collaboration’?

Science is the essential building block for a smart society and it’s got much, much more to offer than the high-school science stereotype that plagues us.

We’ve been doing a lot of thinking about where we’re headed, about our science masterplan for the next five years, and for us, science and innovation are inextricably linked.

But there are some challenges around Australia’s ability to be innovative. Currently Australia ranks 81st in world rankings for innovation efficiency. This is the bang for our buck we get when we transform innovation investment into results. If Australia ranked 81st in the world in a sport, ANY sport, we’d be outraged. Even New Zealand is ahead of us in this game.

Read the CSIRO story - “The ingredients (and our vision) for a smart society”.

CSIRO models help us quench of thirst for knowledge about the future

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e all have an interest in whether rain will dampen our day and a curiosity about what the skies hold for next week. We are all impacted when the weather turns extreme, sometimes in devastating ways. And we have a yearning to know what the future might hold for our climate, so that we can plan ahead.

Weather and climate may never be completely predictable, but science has come far enough for us to be breaking new ground when it comes to projecting what Australia’s climate may look like decades – or even hundreds of years – in the future.

And here’s a sneak peak into the future – by the year 2090, Sydney could have the climate of Brisbane, and Melbourne could have the climate of Dubbo.

Read more of what Chris Gerbing has to say in “Australia’s Next Top climate models”.