Hurricane Florence is a climate change triple threat

Just a year ago we were dealing with an historically devastating Atlantic hurricane season. It was marked by the strongest hurricane – Irma – ever observed in the open Atlantic, the near total devastation of Puerto Rico by a similarly powerful category 5 monster Maria, and Hurricane Harvey – the worst flooding event in US history. At the time, I commented here and elsewhere about the role climate change had played in amplifying the destructive characteristics of these storms.

 High winds and water batter Swansboro,
North Carolina as Hurricane Florence hits.

Not to be outdone, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, initially predicted to be quiet – quelled by an incipient El Niño event and cool, early summer ocean waters – has suddenly erupted. If the current disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico known as “95L” earns the status of tropical storm, the 2018 season will be the second time in recorded history that we’ve seen five tropical storms simultaneously present in the Atlantic basin (the last time was in 1971).

What happened to cause all of this? An early autumn ocean “heat wave” has brought sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic to bathtub-level warmth. Just as summer heat waves on land are greatly increased in frequency and intensity by even modest overall warming, so too are these ocean heat waves becoming more frequent and more extreme as the oceans continue warm. All else being equal, warmer oceans mean more energy to intensify tropical storms and hurricanes.

Read the opinion piece from The Guardian by Michael Mann - “Hurricane Florence is a climate change triple threat.”

Irma and Harvey: very different storms, but both affected by climate change.

There has been no let up since Hurricane Harvey dumped record-breaking rains on the Houston area of Texas. Hurricane Irma lashed parts of the Caribbean and Cuba and is now heading onto the US mainland, having devastated the Florida Keys and the state’s west coast.

Boats are seen at a marina in Coconut Grove as Hurricane Irma arrives at south Florida.

We also have Hurricane Jose following Irma through the Caribbean, and Hurricane Katia, now downgraded after tracking through parts of eastern Mexico.

This very active season comes after a “hurricane drought” with very few major storms making landfall on the US coast over the previous decade.

So why are we seeing so many hurricanes now? Is climate change to blame?

How to make a hurricane

There are several vital ingredients needed for hurricanes to form. These include an initial disturbance in the atmosphere for the storm to form around, very warm sea surface temperatures to sustain the storm, and a lack of vertical wind shear so the storm is not torn apart during its formation.

Read the piece on The Conversation by a Climate Extremes Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne,  Andrew King - “Irma and Harvey: very different storms, but both affected by climate change.”

Hurricane Harvey And The New Normal

This segment is part of our special coverage of Hurricane Harvey. Learn how Harvey could be a disaster for public health, and how developers are building with climate change in mind.

Professor Michael Mann.

“There’s never an ideal time to talk about how climate change is magnifying some of these natural disasters,” says Michael Mann, distinguished professor in the department of meteorology and geosciences at Pennsylvania State University. “But it is important to talk about it.”

As Harvey battered Houston last weekend and floods inundated Southeast Asia in the days following, many did indeed begin to talk about climate change. Mann and other climate scientists say that climate change has intensified these storms so much that we need a new set of guideposts. Predictions we could’ve made in the past are no longer accurate, and the rules that used to help us plan for events like Harvey no longer apply. We’re left with overwhelmed infrastructure and building codes that don’t take into account new conditions.

Listen to the interview on Science Friday - “Hurricane Harvey And The New Normal.”

Extreme weather makes homelessness even worse. Here’s how we can help

The images of Hurricane Harvey in Texas have shown how extreme weather can rob people of their homes. But what about those who have no home to begin with, or whose living situation is already precarious?

Extreme weather makes homelessness problematic.

Almost one-third of people who have been homeless have suffered extra trauma because of extreme weather, according to our research involving 163 homeless services in Australia and New Zealand.

What’s more, 19% of people in our study cited extreme weather as a factor in their clients becoming homeless in the first place.

Read the piece on The Conversation by a Senior Research Fellow in social vulnerability and disasters from Australia’s CQUniversity, Danielle Every -  ”Extreme weather makes homelessness even worse. Here’s how we can help.”

Choices made on the ground are behind the disaster of Hurricane Harvey

When the history books talk about Hurricane Harvey, the devastating storm that dropped more than 120 centimetres of water on south-east Texas, they'll call it a natural disaster. When the insurance companies – the ones that don't go bankrupt – categorise claims from the storm, they file them under "acts of God”.

In the past three years, Houston has experienced three 500-year floods. 

But though the trillions of gallons of water dropped from the sky – rainfall so immense that meteorologists had to add new colours to their maps, just as Australian meteorologists had to add new colours to capture record high temperatures in the country – the devastation the storm wrought was as much a result of choices made on the ground.

From urban sprawl to housing policy to climate legislation, the city of Houston's fate was shaped in state houses and on Capitol Hill, determined not only by policymakers' actions but by their inactions. And the solutions to the growing threat of storms like Harvey reside there as well.

Read Nicole Hemmer’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “Choices made on the ground are behind the disaster of Hurricane Harvey.”

Ex-NASA Scientist James Hansen: There is a Clear Link Between Climate Change & Stronger Hurricanes

Dr. James Hansen has been called the "father of climate change awareness." 

'The father of climate change awareness' -
Dr James Hansen.

In 1988, Hansen first warned about the dangers of global warming when he testified before Congress. At the time, he was the top climate scientist at NASA, where he headed the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. 

We speak with world-renowned climatologist Dr. James Hansen on what role climate change played in unleashing Hurricane Harvey.

Read the Democracy Now story - “Ex-NASA Scientist James Hansen: There is a Clear Link Between Climate Change & Stronger Hurricanes.”

We can no longer tolerate climate change denial

The United States Weather Service, normally not an agency prone to colourful language, issued an extraordinary statement on Sunday regarding hurricane Harvey, saying, "This event is unprecedented and all impacts are unknown beyond anything experienced". It is now predicted the storm could eventually drop over 150 centimetres of rain in some areas, more than any other in the region's history.

America's efforts to combat climate change have
 been battered by President Donald Trump. 

Far from over, it is already clear that Harvey's impact is catastrophic. Six people are confirmed dead and that number is expected to increase. Cost estimates range up to $US100 billion.

Meanwhile flooding in Bangladesh, India and Nepal during the region's worst monsoon season in a decade has killed an estimated 1200 people.

Climate scientists are reluctant to attribute any particular weather event to global warming, though in this case the signs are that human behaviour contributed to the formation and severity of the storm and its impact.

Read the Editorial in The Sydney Morning Herald - “We can no longer tolerate climate change denial.”

Provocative Charlie Hebdo cover depicts Hurricane Harvey victims are neo-Nazis

The French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo relishes controversy, often seeming to invite offence with its provocative cover art.

One 2010 cover illustration showed a Muslim woman running naked, a burqa stuffed up her backside. "Wear the burqa," the caption read, "on the inside." Another showed the prophet Muhammad weeping because he was "overwhelmed by fundamentalists." A June cover depicted British Prime Minister Theresa May decapitated.

The newspaper's latest issue takes aim at a new target: the victims of the catastrophic Hurricane Harvey, which hit Texas on Friday, killing at least 35 people, displacing thousands and causing billions of dollars in damage.

Read Amanda Erickson’s story in rage Melbourne Age - “Provocative Charlie Hebdo cover depicts Hurricane Harvey victims are neo-Nazis.”

Why are the crucial questions about Hurricane Harvey not being asked?

It is not only Donald Trump’s government that censors the discussion of climate change; it is the entire body of polite opinion. This is why, though the links are clear and obvious, most reports on Hurricane Harvey have made no mention of the human contribution to it.

 ‘Hurricane Harvey offers a glimpse of a likely global future;
a future whose average temperatures are as different from ours
 as ours are from those of the last ice age.’

In 2016 the US elected a president who believes that human-driven global warming is a hoax. It was the hottest year on record, in which the US was hammered by a series of climate-related disasters. Yet the total combined coverage for the entire year on the evening and Sunday news programmes on ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox News amounted to 50 minutes. Our greatest predicament, the issue that will define our lives, has been blotted from the public’s mind.

This is not an accident. But nor (with the exception of Fox News) is it likely to be a matter of policy. It reflects a deeply ingrained and scarcely conscious self-censorship. Reporters and editors ignore the subject because they have an instinct for avoiding trouble. To talk about climate breakdown (which in my view is a better term than the curiously bland labels we attach to this crisis) is to question not only Trump, not only current environmental policy, not only current economic policy – but the entire political and economic system.

Read the opinion piece on The Guardian by George Monbiot -  “Why are the crucial questions about Hurricane Harvey not being asked?”

Hurricane Harvey makes landfall in Texas, could be 'on par with Katrina’

The menacing Hurricane Harvey has made landfall in Texas as a category four storm with winds of up to 210 kilometres per hour, making it the most powerful storm in over a decade to hit the mainland United States.

Traffic lights in Corpus Christi were knocked
down as Hurricane Harvey approached.

The hurricane made second landfall about 1:00am local time (4:00pm AEST) near the shore of Copano Bay, north-east of Corpus Christi and was downgraded to a category three, the National Weather Service said.

Tens of thousands of people fled inland before Harvey hit, packing winds of 215 kilometres per hour and sparking fears it could be the most destructive since Katrina left 1,800 people dead in 2005.

Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor about 10:00pm local time (1:00pm AEST) and is expected to dump over 90 centimetres of rain along the Texas coast and parts of Louisiana as it lingers for days.

Read the ABC News story - “Hurricane Harvey makes landfall in Texas, could be 'on par with Katrina’.”

Is Hurricane Harvey Related to Climate Change? Scientists Have a Better Answer

As Hurricane Harvey approaches Texas, an old argument has again resurfaced about whether climate change is to blame.

Hurricane Harvey brought some heavy
weather the coast of Texas.

In the past, scientists have had a rather unsatisfying answer for both environmentalists and skeptics, essentially saying that while climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather, no individual event could be attributed to it.

But that may be changing.

Climate scientists now say that they can use models and historical data to evaluate with increased precision how global warming has affected the odds of a given individual weather event.

Known collectively as the World Weather Attribution group, a group of scientists formed in 2014 to conduct studies on the subject, developing a series of steps they have worked to perfect for case studies. The team begins every project with an announcement that it will undertake the project and a promise to publish the results, even if the impact of climate change on a particular event is shown to be negligible.

Read the Time magazine story by Justin Worland - “Is Hurricane Harvey Related to Climate Change? Scientists Have a Better Answer.”