‘Alarming': Keeping warming to 1.5 degrees to shield Australia from big extremes

Australia will endure more heatwaves, droughts and coral bleaching at 1.5 degrees of warming but the extremes will be considerably less than if global temperatures increase by 2 degrees, new research shows.

In some of the first research on the impacts for Australia of the 1.5 degree to 2 degree range agreed at the Paris climate summit in 2015, Melbourne University scientists have found the chances of a repeat of events such as the "angry summer" of 2012-13 are significantly reduced at the lower end of the warming scale.

That summer, which remains the country's hottest, was already about 10 times more likely than without the 1 degree of warming already experienced since pre-industrial times, said Dr Andrew King, a Melbourne University climate scientist and lead author of the paper published in Nature Climate Change.

At warming of 1.5 degrees, the odds of such a summer with its heat extremes and bush fire-conducive weather increases from about 44 per cent now to 57 per cent. The chance rises to 77 per cent in a 2-degree warmer world, the researchers found.

Read Peter Hannam’s story in today’s Melbourne Age - “‘Alarming': Keeping warming to 1.5 degrees to shield Australia from big extremes.”

Outrage of Germany's Climate Action Plan 2050

Controversy in Berlin over Germany's
Climate Action Plan 2050.

Environmental organisations have responded to a government proposal to decarbonise the economy with outrage.

They say the Climate Action Plan 2050 will fall well short of meeting climate targets, and accuse the environment ministry of caving in to pressure from the economics ministry and Angela Merkel’s Chancellery to water down ambitious plans and drop important details, like a deadline for the coal exit.

The final version of the German Environment Ministry’s Climate Action Plan has been published. But concrete targets included in previous drafts have been removed, prompting the Green Party to describe the document as an “admission of government failure”.

The Climate Action Plan was announced at the Paris Climate Summit as a framework for how Germany was to reach its goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 percent by 2050.

Read the Climate Home story - “Germany publishes 30-year climate change strategy.”

What has the Turnbull Government done since the euphoria of Paris?

Many argue that even two degrees
is vastly inadequate the world
should be aiming for 1.5 degrees.

Globally there are many well-known names who have raised concerns about climate change: the Pope, Barack Obama, Leonardo DiCaprio, Prince Charles, Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Rockefeller Foundation.

In Australia too, a broad range of voices have added their concerns and fears to the debate: firefighters who can no longer protect people or houses as we battle increasingly extreme weather conditions, 90% of Australian youth who last year said climate change was an important issue for them, farmers who see the effects of climate change on their properties every day, doctors who stress the deadly impact of heatwaves on the elderly, very young and those with existing health problems, climate scientists, David Pocock, Cate Blanchett, the tens of thousands of protestors who took to the streets in climate marches held across the country in November 2015 … the list goes on.

A global chorus of voices applauded the historic climate change agreement reached in December 2015 in Paris, including Ban Ki-moon, Francois Hollande and representatives from the nearly 200 countries who took part in the negotiations.

Read The Guardian story - “It's three months since the Paris climate summit. What has Turnbull done?”

(Just last week Clive Hamilton, an Australian author and public intellectual and the Professor of Public Ethics at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics, which is a joint centre of Charles Sturt University and the University of Melbourne, decried what the Turnbull Government had done since the December conference in Paris.

The Charles Sturt University professor, who is based at the Canberra campus, lamented Australia’s addiction to fossil fuels during a conversation with La Trobe University Professor Robert Manne – Robert McLean.)

Mary Robinson wows Melbourne audience with talk of climate justice

Mary Robinson speaking about climate
justice in Melbourne on Tuesday night.

Mary Robinson, the first female president of Ireland, gave a speech in Melbourne on March 15. Robinson, who served between 1990 and 1997, has since gone on to play an active role in international climate negotiations.

As special envoy on climate change to the UN Secretary-General, Robinson negotiated with world leaders ahead of the successful Paris climate summit in December 2015.

Through her work on climate change Robinson is an active proponent of “climate justice”, which advocates sharing the burden of mitigating and adapting to climate change between all parts of society, and particularly between developed and developing nations.

In Melbourne she addressed the growing role of climate justice in climate talks and in bringing the Paris Agreement into force. The following is a summary of Robinson’s key points.

Read a report from the MelbourneSustainable Society Institute – “Mary Robinson: 'climate justice' must play a key role in the Paris Agreement.”

Stockholm city leaders 'blow past' ambitious global emissions target

At the recent Paris climate summit, world leaders set an ambitious global target: no net carbon emissions by mid-century. That means all of the carbon we burn from fossil fuels must be absorbed by the world’s forests and oceans. Achieving that — well, easier said than done.

Yet, in the city of Stockholm, city leaders are looking to blow past that goal — they want to be a completely fossil fuel free city by the year 2040. That presents a major transportation and urban planning challenge, but the city is already well on its way. It's getting there through a series of carrots and sticks.

Read the PRI.org story - “Sweden's capital is on its way to becoming fossil fuel free by 2040.”

Amid the cheers comes the warning that it's not over yet

Paris activists remind the
 world what needs to happen.

Though world leaders recently cheered a historic agreement to limit global greenhouse gas emissions, a deal endorsed by 195 countries at the Paris Climate Summit last December, those who believe the climate crisis was put to bed should think again.

It's true this was the first time that countries, both rich and poor, committed to reducing their emissions in such a way as to maintain global temperature rise to maximum of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) with a pledge to try to keep it even lower. However, current global commitments will still bring us to around 3 degrees Celsius of warming through the year 2100 — well above the levels deemed dangerous for civilization.

Read Tom Liacas’s story on Mashable Australia - “Here's where climate activists are setting their sights in 2016.”

Aussie coal mines could see the world smash through 2°C limit

Australian coal exports could fuel plans to build thousands of new coal fired power stations around the world which threaten to undermine national commitments to reduce carbon emissions made at the Paris climate summit and take global emissions beyond the 2°C limit to avoid catastrophic climate change.

An expert analysis, released today by a group of four research organisations known as Climate Action Tracker (CAT), found that emissions from new coal fired power plants could take emissions from the sector 400% higher than levels needed to stay below 2°C.

Read Jon Walter’s story on RenewEconomy - “New Australian coal mines threaten world’s chance to stay below 2°C.”

MSSI blog will tell the Paris story, everyday

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limate change is firmly on the world's agenda in 2015 as countries gather for the UN's annual climate summit, from 30 November to 11 December.

At the Paris summit, countries may agree on a new treaty to address global warming - but it won’t be easy, and the end result might not be enough to avoid dangerous temperature increases.

A team of researchers from the University of Melbourne is there and will post their expert analysis and commentary here. Keep in the loop via @MSSIMelb #COP21 #climatechange.

Check each day - “Blog: Paris Climate Summit.”

The one matter we can't name - 'population' - is the one that really matters

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George Monbiot -
the population
crisis.

his column is about the population crisis. About the breeding that’s laying waste to the world’s living systems. But it’s probably not the population crisis you’re thinking of. This is about another one, that we seem to find almost impossible to discuss.

You’ll hear a lot about population in the next three weeks, as the Paris climate summit approaches. Across the airwaves and on the comment threads it will invariably be described as “the elephant in the room”. When people are not using their own words, it means they are not thinking their own thoughts. Ten thousand voices each ask why no one is talking about it. The growth in human numbers, they say, is our foremost environmental threat.

Read George Monbiot’s column - “Pregnant Silence.”

Australian companies commit as Paris conference draws closer

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ast week 12 Australian companies committed to strong measures to tackle climate change at the Australian Climate Leadership Summit in Sydney. Many of these companies are household names, including the National Australia Bank, Westpac, AGL and Origin.



ClimateWorks CEO,
Anna Skarbek.

The announcement followed the peak bodies’ statement in June pledging their support to the global goal of limiting climate change to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and acknowledging that this will require most countries, including Australia, eventually to reduce net emissions to zero or below.

The commitment by these companies is consistent with ClimateWorks Australia’s research with ANU and CSIRO that shows Australia can substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions – to net zero by 2050 – while still growing the economy.

Read The Conversation story by ClimateWorks Australia CEO, Monash University, Anna Skarbek - “Business is picking up the pace ahead of the Paris climate summit.”