Leunig produces flames and fury

Leunig’s regular musings in the Melbourne Age seem to drive people to their extremes (and that how it should be) as they either love him or loathe him.

Here’s an example:

Why 2°C of global warming is much worse for Australia than 1.5°C

Australia is a land of extremes. We’ve experienced all manner of climate extremes over the past few years, from heatwaves (both on land and over the Great Barrier Reef), to droughts and flooding rains.

Fires in Blue Mountains Australia, October 22, 2013. 

We can already link some of these recent extreme events to climate change. But for others, the link is less clear.

So far we have had about 1°C of global warming above the average pre-industrial climate. So how will extreme weather events change with more warming in the future? Will they become more frequent? Will they become more severe?

We have investigated these questions in our new research, published today in Nature Climate Change.

Read the Eco-Business story - “Why 2°C of global warming is much worse for Australia than 1.5°C.”

The Attribution Question

“Did climate change have anything to do with this?”

Often in the wake of an extreme weather event, the “attribution question” gets asked. Did human-induced global warming play a role in the heat wave, rainstorms or drought?

Scientists are now able to answer this for many types of extremes. But the answer may vary depending on how the question is framed.

Read the World Weather Attribution story - “The Attribution Question.”

Governance stands between a decent life and climate driven catastrophe

Roger Cohen.

Governance at local, national and international levels focussing on the needs of people rather than their wants is all that stands between a decent life and climate change driven catastrophe.

And in reading Roger Cohen’s story in The New York Times - “Australia Does Anxiety” – it seems the neoliberalists of the world prefer chancing catastrophe rather than embracing the altruism that is the essence of a good life.

The resolution of climate change, well, it can’t be resolved in any time frame relevant to those alive today, but if worldwide we shift the emphasis from human wants to what people really need, we begin processes that will soften the extremes.

That change of emphasis hinges almost entirely on the governance of our society and in reading Cohen’s story we are well shy of having any governance to allow that shift in attitude – Robert McLean.

Weeping for society as I lock-up my bike

M

y heart weeps for society every time I use my bicycle and the behaviour of just a few forces me to lock it up.

The new bicycle security lockers in
Shepparton's Maude St Mall.

I grew up in an era when people rarely locked anything, including the front door of their homes, but all that has changed and now a bike can’t be left unattended for even minutes for it could be subject to an opportunistic theft.

Theft is one of the prime reasons that people don’t use bicycles more and sadly many local governments have been forced to go to extremes to provide bicycle parking security.

And now the City of Greater Shepparton is providing security lockers in the city’s Maude St Mall.

Read the story - “GSCC Bike Lockers providing more options for cyclists”.

- Robert McLean.

The World Bank urges us to Turn Down the Heat!

This third report in the

Turn Down the Heat series two covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA).

The data show that dramatic climate changes, heat and weather extremes are already impacting people, damaging crops and coastlines and putting food, water, and energy security at risk.

Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer.

In an overview of social vulnerability, the poor and underprivileged, as well as the elderly and children, are found to be often hit the hardest. There is growing evidence, that even with very ambitious mitigation action, warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century is already locked-in to the Earth’s atmospheric system and climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable.

If the planet continues warming to 4°C, climatic conditions, heat and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal - a world of increased risks and instability.

The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. The task of promoting human development, of ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all.

Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world.

The benefits of strong, early action on climate change, action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies, far outweigh the costs. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C. But, the time to act is now.

This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia.

Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services and coastal vulnerability for affected populations

A 'Decade of Extremes' - WMO

A “Decade of Extremes” is the description given to the past 10 years by the World Meteorological Organization.

In the forward to its report, the organization says:

“The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade recorded since modern measurements began around 1850. It saw above-average precipitation, including one year – 2010 – that broke all previous records.

It was also marked by dramatic climate and weather extremes such as the European heatwave of 2003, the 2010 floods in Pakistan, hurricane Katrina in the United States of America (USA), cyclone Nargis in Myanmar and long-term droughts in the Amazon Basin, Australia and East Africa.”

 

Global warming and extreme railfall events linked

Global warming and its measurable link to extreme rainfall events has been discussed in the latest edition of The Conversation.

University of Adelaide senior lecturer at the School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, Seth Westra, explores the link in a story headed: “Increases in rainfall extremes linked to global warming”.

Mr. Westra said: “Rainfall extremes are increasing around the world, and the increase is linked to the warming of the atmosphere which has taken place since pre-industrial times.

“This is the conclusion of a recent study investigated extreme rainfall trends using data from 8326 weather-recording stations globally, some of which have records spanning more than a hundred years,” he wrote.

Considering and designing for a future of extremes

Beneath the Wisteria supporter John Lawry is a University of Melbourne Alumni and was kind enough to share with us first edition of Melbourne Alumni eNews Special Bulletin, which focuses on Climate Change and the Environment.

Among the many interesting stories included on the eNews Special Bulletin is the article entitled, “Design for a future of extremes”.

University researchers talk to Kate O'Hara about a project letting design lead the way in predicting extreme weather conditions.