Temperature rises will make Brisbane a 'difficult place to live' within 30 years, report finds

An alarming report has found temperature increases from climate change and urban growth will make Brisbane "a difficult place to live" within the next 30 years, and more people will be at risk of dying from extreme heat.

The study found the number of hot days and nights would double.

The long-term climate modelling also found the number of hot days and nights will double in Australia's third largest city by 2050, and people will need to avoid outdoor activities throughout most of summer.

The peer-reviewed study, which was published recently in the International Journal of Climatology, investigated the impact of urban growth and climate change on heat stress during summer in Brisbane, from the present day to 2050.

Read the ABC News story by Shelley Lloyd - “Temperature rises will make Brisbane a 'difficult place to live' within 30 years, report finds.”

When is a record not a record?

It’s been cold here in Brisbane for the last few days, at least by our subtropical standards, with overnight minimums of 6 degrees in the city, and negative temperatures in towns like Stanthorpe in the nearby Granite Belt. 

Professor John Quiggin.

That occasioned lots of news coverage, with the observation that this was the coldest temperature we’ve had since 2014 and one of the coldest since 2000. The same was true for much of Eastern Australia. Melbourne had its coldest morning in several years, and a couple of towns in NSW had the lowest minimum for several decades.

Read the piece written by the VC Senior Research Fellow from the School of Economics at the University of Queensland, Professor John Quiggin, “When is a record not a record?”

'Make no mistake' - it's global warming

A

discussion about climate change appeared in Page six in today’s Country News, the McPherson Newspaper Group’s specialist rural publication.

The story, headed “Climate change leading to more hot weather” said:

Make no mistake about it – global warming is increasing the odds of hot, record-breaking weather conditions in Australia, climate experts say.

Professor David Karoly.

Five papers released in October, including three from the University of Melbourne, have analysed Australia’s changing climate throughout 2014 as part of that annual extremes issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society.

The papers look at the role of climate change on a series of extreme weather events that hit Australia last year, including:

-      Two baking hot days during the G20 World Leaders Forum in Brisbane.

-      The January heatwaves in Melbourne and Adelaide.

-      A 19-day nationwide heatwave during May.

-      The hottest spring on record.

-      An unusually stalled weather pattern that led to severe frost across the south-east of the country.

University of Melbourne atmospheric scientist David Karoly says the five papers together demonstrate just how much global warming has become a part of today’s climate.

“We have just experienced Australia’s hottest October on record and globally 2015 looks likely to smash the hottest year on record yet again,” he said.

“The expected and obvious signals of climate change confirm that global warming is already with us as we move towards the Paris talks.”

He said in almost every case, climate change was found to have a significant impact.

“Climate scientists have long expected an increase in extreme heat events to be the first apparent symptom of global warming,” Professor Karoly said.

“The pronounced increase in these events show how global warming has started to change our world.”

University of Melbourne research fellow Dr Andrew King authored a paper investigating the G20 summit.

He found the 34 on the first day of the Brisbane summit was 25 per cent more likely due to climate change; and 38 November days are now 44 per cent more likely.

But investigations into January heatwaves the struck Adelaide and Melbourne during the Australian Open are less clear.

Queensland experiencing its warmest June on record

Q

ueensland is experiencing is warmest June on record.

And to worsen that, the Brisbane Courier Mail reports, is new data illustrating present dry conditions are likely to persist for the next three months.

According to the Weather Bureau’s long term outlook, above normal temperatures across much of the country are expected this month.

Hydrologist Paul Feikema said temperatures this month had been so far one to three degrees above average.

“This is setting the scene for one of the warmest Junes on record,” Dr Feikema said.

He said drought-bearing El Nino conditions continued to strengthen, although, he added, they did not preclude rain and showers due to local conditions as was the case on the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast hinterland.

A situation described as “extraordinary” by Agforce Grains spokesman, Wayne Newton, had evolved in Queensland where farmers in the drought belt had nothing while those in other areas were doing quite well.

The Darling Downs had, according to Mr Newton had received about 100ml of rain some two months ago leading to substantial plantings of wheat, barley and chickpeas. He said plantings had also happened in central Queensland.

Chickpea prices had risen sharply following crop failures on the sub-continent, resulting in many Queensland farmers receiving up to $850 a tonne, well above the usual $450 a tonne.

The state-wide variations in heat and rain saw graziers in the far west, southeast, east and north achieving boom-like prices for cattle and sheep, while farmers in the heart of the state were without feed.

“It’s not all gloom and doom in the grain industry, but its fingers crossed for the rest of the season,” Mr Newton said. 

Sweltering greeting will continue in Australian cities

Dr Ailie Gallant  - muggy cities.

Several Australian cities, such as Adelaide and Perth, have greeted 2015 with scorching weather as summer hits its stride – the kind of conditions that leave us crying out for an air conditioner, rather than dreaming of barbeques and beach trips.

The change in weather conditions in Australian cities has been discussed in an article on The Conversation, by Monash University PhD student, Stephanie Jacobs and a lecturer in the university’s School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Dr Ailie Gallant.

PhD student, Stephanie Jacobs.

Writing in “Bad luck, Brisbane: muggy cities will feel future heat even more” they said new research shows that Australians could end up feeling even hotter than expected over the next few decades, as changing weather conditions make climate change feel even more severe than it is.

“That’s bad news for Sydney and Brisbane, where sweltering humidity is set to rise,” they wrote.

The human face of climate change is often hidden

The noise of the melting, crashing glaciers
in Peru adds something of a "human face'.

The human face of climate change rarely shows itself in Australia, at least officially.

Australians, like most others in the world, are becoming normalized to the extreme and different weather that has become a constant companion around the world.

The recent super-cell storm that swept through Brisbane causing damage worth in excess of more than $1 million was described as a “freak storm”.

That, along the simple and definable things such as warmer night’s, which have the finger prints of climate change all over them, are simply morphing into becoming how things are meant to be.

Even though our scientists can clearly define the damage we have caused to earth’s atmosphere, few people are prepared to risk reputation in declaring such events as that in Brisbane as clear evidence of climate change.

Writing in the Age in a story headed: “Annual United Nations climate conference held in Peru, the human face of climate risks” Marcus Priest discusses the human face of climate change in Peru, the venue for next week’s annual United Nations climate conference.

The obvious officially ignored, but unofficially it was everywhere

University of Melbourne’s
Associate Professor
Peter Christoff

What was obvious for most was officially ignored at Brisbane’s recent G20 Summit.

The world’s twenty most influential economies gathered at Brisbane to talk about growth when even those not paying attention must have realised that such discussions were intimately dependent upon a benign climate.

Save just one small paragraph, the final communique focussed almost entirely on growth, apparently blind to the complications inherent in driving for infinite growth on a finite planet.

Worsening this pointless rush for growth was the apparent ignorance, wilful or otherwise, that the much cherished growth is wholly dependent on the state of earth’s climate.

University of Melbourne’s Associate Professor Peter Christoff wrote on “G20 Watch” about the “Dangerous separation of economics and climate persists”.

Dr Christoff, who teaches and researches climate politics and policy in the Department of Resource Management and Geography, said, “Attempts by Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott to keep climate change off the G20 agenda fizzed - like his much-hyped 'shirt-fronting' of Vladimir Putin, who ended up only wearing a docile koala”.

If a formal sense, climate change was kept well away from discussions, or so it appeared, but informally that appeared to be the focus of a whole event.

Good sense cannot combat hardened philosophical beliefs

When people make statements and adopt a philosophical position it becomes almost impossible to change their mind and any attempt to do so only sees them harden their beliefs.

And that strengthened belief is not only defiant of good sense, but frequently puts important relationships at risk.

An example of that can be seen at next G20 forum in Brisbane at which Australia’s Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, first refused to even discuss climate change and now, despite international calls, will not commit Australia to any support for a climate change fund.

The Guardian tells readers that Europe and the US argue strongly that leaders should back the need for contributions to the Green Climate Fund, which helps poorer countries prepare for climate change.

That story headed: “G20: Australia resists international call supporting climate change fund” explains Australia continues to resist this last ditch effort to have it participate in the Green Climate Fund.

Farmer ploughs G20 message into his paddocks

World leaders flying in for next week’s G20 Forum in Brisbane will clearly see that renewable energy is a priority for some, even if not for Australia’s PM, Tony Abbott.

A Queensland farmer has done what he can to alert G20 leaders to the importance of solar energy in that he has ploughed a huge message into his paddocks stressing the importance to “Go Solar”.

Brisbane’s Courier Mail has reported on farmer Rob McGreath’s efforts to tell G20 leaders he cares and in that urge them to make climate change a significant part of their discussions.

The Courier Mail story about the ploughed paddock is headed: “Climate change: Queensland farmer sends mighty message to G20 leaders about solar power”.

Climate change warrants top billing at G20 Forum

-      Robert McLean

A few weeks ago I wrote a potential newspaper column about the importance of climate change being on the G20 agenda, but sensing a decided reluctance from my editor about further columns mentioning the climate dilemma, it has simply languished among unused and unpublished items.

Labor Leader, Bill Shorten - he
believes climate change
should be discussed at the G20.

 

Seeing this piece (link follows) from Michelle Grattan discussing the similar idea being suggested by Labor Leader, Bill Shorten encourages me to submit it.

This is what I wrote recently:

 

Climate change should be the first order of business at the November G20 forum in Brisbane.

Consideration of climate change would allow those at the forum to make informed and reasoned judgements about economic cooperation and decision making.

Any decisions made without first recognising and allowing for the differences climate change will bring to our market-driven society are irresponsible.

Economic growth, as understood by most, is entirely dependent upon a benign climate and the uninhibited access to the earth’s finite resources; resources that have taken billions of years to accumulate.

That ageless resource is now so depleted and subsequently becoming so scarce and expensive that to enhance a process depending on unlimited “everything” is not only reckless, but maybe even a crime against humanity.

Strong words: words that elicit thoughts of the Yeats poem, “The Second Coming” in which he writes: “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”.

The equations that will drive our ultimate demise are not complicated and to understand and accept them requires little more than primary school mathematics and nothing of the arcane, convoluted and bizarre intellectual trickery the will prevail at Brisbane in November.

Our Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, one who stands among those who deny global warming, has already declared that climate change will not be allowed to interfere with the “important” talks at the Brisbane forum.

Taken from its own website, the G20 says:

“Strengthening growth and creating jobs is our top priority and we are fully committed to taking decisive actions to return to a job-rich, strong, sustainable and balanced growth path. … We will identify the remaining key obstacles to be addressed and reforms needed to achieve stronger, more sustainable and balanced growth in our economies”.

These obviously highly-intelligent people appear to be locked into fantasy-fuelled beliefs that technology will rescue humanity from this collision of economic chaos, resource depletion, over-population, governance disorder and seemingly endless military confrontation.

Meeting last year in St Petersburg, the G20 leaders said their immediate task was to break the cycle of low growth and diminished business and consumer confidence.

The G20 argues it is well placed to do this in Brisbane this year.

Should they be serious about global economic security then they must first consider the impact of climate change; restructure the global economy to ensure financial equality for all, end the hugely disparate earnings around the world; truly understand what “sustainable” means; ensure gender equality; invest heavily in building resilience in communities; and educate and help people understand how they can grow and provide much of their own food.

Organic growth, and resilience, will sprout from communities of a type sadly unlikely to be considered at Brisbane in November.

Quoting Yeats again: “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold”.

And now Michelle Grattan has written on The Conversation about Labor leader, Bill Shorten arguing for the same thing,

Her story is headed: “Shorten urges climate issues be a priority at G20”.

Climate change off the G20 agenda

Foreign Minister,
Julia Bishop.

The November G20 summit in Brisbane is exactly the place at which climate change mitigation should be discussed.

An Australian Network News story headed: “No priority for climate change at G20: Australia” quotes Australian Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop, who said climate change discussions will not be given any priority.

Conscious that the goals of G20 nations are actually the drivers of climate change, the head of World Vision Australia, Tim Costello, has said the G20 must address issues concerning climate change.

He said Pacific nations are not involved with G20, but the issues affecting their well-being, prime among them climate change, must be discussed at the Brisbane event.

CSG dilemma hijacked by the economy and academia

Speaking at last night's Brisbane seminar
(L-R) Prof Garnett, Deb Kerr, Dr Beck,
Tony Wood and Prof Sandiford.

A strange disquiet overwhelmed me as five highly intelligent and literate people discussed “Unconventional gas – energy saviour or environment problem?” last night at Queensland’s State Library in Brisbane.

It appeared the challenges and difficulties of coal seam gas (CSG), of which there are many, had been hijacked by the economy and academia.

Missing from the conversation, but not entirely, was what the accessing of this unconventional gas would mean to people, their communities, Australian society generally and, importantly, our environment.

Societal and environmental difficulties were discussed, but the fact that the pursuit of CSG could disrupt and render whole districts impotent for traditional human use, seemed unimportant.

Last night’s conversation appeared methodology – how to access the gas safely and how it would impact on the local economy and its influence on world events.

The fact that CSG would remain a part of the modern landscape, although many actual landscapes would be ruined, appeared to be an accepted fact. Business as usual prevailed.

Chair at last night’s discussion, attended by more than 200 people, was the Director of the Centre for Coal Seam Gas at the University of Queensland, Professor Andrew Garnett, who quickly explained that his department was not an advocate of CSG, rather a place where it was studied and investigated.

On the discussion panel were the Energy Program Director with the Grattan Institute, Tony Wood; deputy chair of the ACOLA working group on engineering energy, Dr Vaughan Beck; the Natural Resource Manager, National Farmers’ Federation, Deb Kerr; and the Director of the Melbourne Energy Institute, Professor Mike Sandiford.

Robert McLean