Climate’s Troubling Unknown Unknowns

Donald Rumsfeld famously popularized the term “unknown unknowns” in a 2002 news briefing when describing the challenges of linking Iraq to weapons of mass destruction. Troublingly, climate change may also be strewn with such unknowns, and they pose daunting tests for how we face the future.

Dirty air blanketing the New York skyline at sunset.

One is choosing among policy alternatives. Should we minimize tomorrow’s risks now by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, or save money today and spend it on adapting to the effects of planetary warming once threats emerge more fully, like rising seas or prolonged droughts? The policy debate increasingly tilts toward adaptation.

But we can’t adapt to perils from unknown unknowns. In such cases, adaptation will largely fail; only mitigation will be effective.

Read the opinion piece from The New York Times by William B. Gail - “Climate’s Troubling Unknown Unknowns.”

Blue Carbon: an effective climate mitigation and drawdown tool?

Blue carbon is increasingly being championed by organisations and governments as a tool for climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as addressing multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). 

What is blue carbon, how much potential does it actually have, and how could we use it? 

The term "blue carbon" encompasses vegetated coastal ecosystems of seagrasses, tidal marshes and mangroves, which are highly efficient at carbon drawdown or biosequestration - capturing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) using biological processes - and which store huge amounts of carbon in their plants and soils (Macreadie et al. 2017a). They may have a very large potential for further storing carbon, and are also are significant biodiversity hotspots.

Terrestrial ecosystems have attracted much attention for their capacity to mitigate climate change as a carbon store (or “sink”) for sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, but water-based ecosystems have received comparatively little attention until recently.

Read the Climate Code Red story by Alia Armistead - “Blue Carbon: an effective climate mitigation and drawdown tool?”

Farmers’ climate denial begins to wane as reality bites

Australia has been described as the “front line of the battle for climate change adaptation”, and our farmers are the ones who have to lead the charge. Farmers will have to cope, among other pressures, with longer droughts, more erratic rainfall, higher temperatures, and changes to the timing of seasons.

Doing it tough.

Yet, puzzlingly enough to many commentators, climate denial has been widespread among farmers and in the ranks of the National Party, which purports to represent their interests.

Read The Conversation story - “Farmers’ climate denial begins to wane as reality bites.”

Green Climate Fund commits a further $80 million to climate change adaptation projects

The Green Climate Fund has approved over $80 million for three new climate change adaptation projects.

Earlier in 2018, the Green Climate Fund announced funding worth $1 billion for climate adaptation projects. The interagency partnerships led by the United Nations Development Programme will support programmes in Bangladesh, Georgia and Zambia. In total, the projects will catalyse over $239 million towards climate resilience.

Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, the Head of Climate Change Adaptation, UNDP noted: “The approved projects touch on issues related to food security, access to water, and resilient infrastructure,”

Read the ClimateAction story - “Green Climate Fund commits a further $80 million to climate change adaptation projects.”

Starting the Dialogue on Climate Engineering Governance: A World Commission

Climate engineering can, if appropriately governed within a coherent overall climate change strategy, reduce risks beyond what mitigation and adaptation can achieve alone, and is probably essential to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature targets. Climate engineering also poses significant new risks, and needs expanded research and scrutiny in climate assessments.

Starting the conversation on
climate engineering governance.

Both types of climate engineering — carbon removal and solar geoengineering — also pose significant challenges to governance. The governance challenges of solar methods are particularly novel and severe, and urgently need international examination and consultation, both to learn how (and whether) climate engineering can deliver societal and ecosystem benefits, and to prepare for the likelihood that some states, facing mounting climate change impacts, will pursue climate engineering, and the international system will have to respond.

The needed international dialogue on geoengineering governance will have broad international participation; engage high-level expertise in international policy and institutions; draw closely on parallel advances in scientific knowledge and technical capability, while keeping governance the central focus; and facilitate open, exploratory investigations of governance needs and potential responses, rather than pursue specific decisions, at least in initial stages. Present institutions are not well equipped to support these needs.

Read the Centre for International Governance Innovation by Edward A. Parson - “Starting the Dialogue on Climate Engineering Governance: A World Commission.”

(Read the "Conclusion" closely and you will see that such an idea is not without its challenges - Robert McLean)

Climate change action unleashes global innovation

Jeremy Burke in London.

Phasing out polluting fossil fuels saves lives, reduces respiratory issues and decreases pressure on health budgets. Decentralising electricity production empowers individuals and communities.

To deliver these benefits, governments must implement clear policies to motivate business and investors.

Putting the right policies in place can unleash unprecedented innovation. Business will respond to changing economics that affect their market position, necessitating new ways of thinking, new business models and rapid adaptation.

Read the Pursuit piece from the Director, Strategy, UK Green Investment Bank; Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Melbourne alumnus, Jeremy Burke - “Climate change action unleashes global innovation.”

Optimistic, innovative and confident humans face adaptation challenges

H

umans are generally optimistic, innovative and so confident that they can adapt to most things.

Many see global warming and just another of life’s “speed bumps” that will be easily smoothed out through technology and the adaptation that has been the hallmark of homo-species, particularly modern human beings.

However, global warming raises the bar even higher and so the need for adaptation is going to even more pressing and as suggested in a story by Vox, even “messier than we think”.

The story - “Adapting to climate change is going to be a lot messier than we think” – discusses adaptation, saying: It's a hopeful idea. Except you can also find quite a few examples of places where we're doing the exact opposite of that — places where we're actively increasing our exposure to risks like floods and wildfires, either by building more homes in disaster-prone areas or by subsidizing those who do with taxpayer money.”

This is America, but here in Australia, the equation is strikingly similar.

Slap wants people to understand the need to adapt

Shepparton’s Slap Tomorrow is eager to see people understand the need to adapt to the Goulburn Valley’s changing climate.

Far from the GV, a South Gippsland farmer sees herself as on the frontline of climate change adaption.

A story in today’s Melbourne Age -“South Gippsland farmer moves milking season to adapt to climate change” – discusses what Marion McDonald has done to prepare her farm.

“Mrs Macdonald is on the frontline of climate change adaption. And she's proud of what she's done so far – but she knows she can adapt only so much,” The Age reports.

Adaptation is about how fast and how

“Adaptation, adaptation and adaptation” is what meeting the climate challenge is about according to John Pettigrew.

The president of the Shepparton-based “Slap Tomorrow” believes that in building a future in which we can happily live is all about what we do and how quickly we adapt to the dynamics of a damaged atmosphere..

Adaptation of course, needs to be accompanied by intense and effective mitigation processes, according to the Scientific American.

It tell us that in “Continuing to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere will trigger "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people, species and 27 ecosystems," concludes a landmark draft U.N. science report expected to be approved this week.”

In a story headed: “Irreversible Climate Change Would Result from Continued Inaction” the Scientific American says: “Adapting to climate change, according to a final draft obtained by ClimateWire, can reduce some risks. But, it argues, "there are limits to its effectiveness, particularly if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced."

Appointment of 'adaptation mentors' suggests mitigation is officially forgotten

Victorians are being subtly introduced to a process that could eventually become serious geo-engineering.

It seems that officialdom has abandoned the idea of climate change mitigation and had embarked on adaptation.

That, at least, is one interpretation that could be put up the appointment of three “Local government adaptation mentors”.

Although they are not in the title, the missing words are “climate change”, indicating, mitigation is a lost opportunity and now we are looking at adapting to whatever comes.

Geo-engineering is a natural extension of adaptation processes and while embraced by many of the fossil-fuel enthusiasts, it takes little, or no account, of unintended consequences, the acidification of our oceans, the survival of other species upon which man depends or our intergenerational responsibilities, that is to people we haven’t met yet, because they are not yet born.

Just recently, three new Local government adaptation mentors were appointed in Victoria, one in Warrnambool, one in Melbourne and a third in Wangaratta.

Narelle Martin has been at work in Wangaratta for nearly four weeks and is responsible for local governments in whole northern section of Victoria.

Appointment of the three mentors is state-based pilot project. Narelle can be contacted at 0477 313 911.

Alianne and the VCCCAR help us understand climate change and adaptation

Alianne Rance - helping us
understand climate change
an adaptation.

Alianne Rance and the Victorian Centre for Climate Change Research Adaption Research centre consider climate change through two things close the Victorians’ hearts – AFL and cooking.

Alianne and her brother, Alex, who plays with AFL club, Richmond, discuss the impact climate change is having on the game that almost a religion in Victoria.

Two short videos – “Climate change and AFL” and “Cooking for adaptation” – help us understand how our changing climate is affecting even football and how we need to go about adapting to those changes.

Passing a 'tipping point' and turning to wide-eyed solutions

Those who understand the mechanics of earth’s climate have declared that humanity’s survival was inextricably linked to keeping carbon dioxide levels below 350 parts per million (ppm).

Once beyond that mark, the positive feedbacks became such that humans had passed what is colloquially known as the “tipping point” – that moment when mitigation opportunities had vanished and all that remained was adaptation using hitherto untried and untested processes such as carbon capture and sequestration and wide-eyed geo-engineering schemes.

The hoped for 350ppm ideal is now little more than a dream for CBS news reports that CO2 levels are now above 400ppm.

Writing in a story headed: “First time in 800 000 years: April’s CO2 levels above 400ppm”, CBS said the level was above the 400ppm level for the entire month.

Convesation is shifting - Andrew Lilico

The climate change conversation is shifting from mitigation to resilience and adaptation.

Writing in the Telegraph, an economist the Europe Economics and a member of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, Andrew Lilico, said past debate had been futile and was now shifting to a new phase.

Talk about mitigation was now pointless, he suggested and people now needed to be discussing adaptation and resilience.

Lilico’s story headed: “Climate change: the debate is about to change radically” discusses the financial implications of mitigation and adaptation.

Putting adaptation and mitigation together to tackle climate change

Adaptation and mitigation are rarely considered together when people discuss a response to climate change.

Learn about life in Australia
 in a four degree world.

However, they are in fact complementary, one and the same thing for if you apply mitigation processes correctly adaptation will follow.

Human-induced climate change has arisen, primarily, because humanity discovered fossil fuels and worked out a ways to employ them for humanity’s benefit, but failed to recognize that in the burning they would be dumping inordinate amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Initially all was well for there were relatively few people on the earth (about one billion in 1800) and aided by the fossil fuels that brought the agricultural and industrial revolutions, along with marked increases in public health, we began to live longer and healthier lives.

Being better fed and educated, along with becoming much smarter, we learned how to exploit those fossil fuels and in making life far more comfortable, our numbers began to expand and in the past 40 years our population has more than tripled to an alarming seven billion plus.

However, those who study such things argue population growth is slowing and although there are more people living on the earth now than in the whole of human history, we will see fewer than 10 billion people on earth by the end of this century.

Of course, the numbers are in a sense irrelevant to how we adapt to a mitigate climate change.

The die, it is important to note, is already cast.

The amount of carbon dioxide dumped into out atmosphere as an unaccounted for externality is such that what is now a nearly one degree increase in the earth’s surface temperatures above pre-industrial times will soon become two degrees.

Writing in the 2013 book, “Four Degrees of Global Warming: Australia in a Hot World”, there was consensus among the many authors, the Australians would need to learn to adapt to living all the shortcomings and difficulties associated with a four degree increase in temperature.

The two degree increase is unavoidable and roaring down the pipe toward us is a four degree increase and so we need not just adaptation, but mitigation if we are to have any serious likelihood of surviving these quite different circumstances.

People need to educate themselves, read the literature and learn about what is ahead.

Population numbers have soared, but are
expected to plateau at less than 10 billion.

What we are facing is so different from what has existed that it escapes the comprehension of most and the outcome is of such complexity, that to attempt an explanation here would do a disservice to all, short to say that the world of tomorrow will be different, damnably difficult and effectively a step into the unknown.

Let’s talk about adaptation and mitigation – first we must throw off the human created economic shackles and create a new life that is people focussed rather than one the emphasises that human-created construct of money.

Work, a process that enslaves many and benefits just a few, needs to be relegated to a position of lesser importance and so rather than be “working for the man”, we need to be in a position of working for the greater wellbeing of all.

Subsequently a four-hour work day would still see us produce more than enough to ensure our comfortable survival and yet allow each of us sufficient time in which to work with and for our respective communities.

An inherent part of such an approach would see us all poorer, in brutal economic terms, and so less able to consume “stuff” and so society’s use of and consumption of fossil fuel-powered energy would drop dramatically.

Freed from the “need” to work most of our waking hours, each of us would be in a position to use that time, energy and skill to help make our neighbourhoods, communities, towns and cities better places in which to live.

Places that because of the work/life balance would be less energy intensive, more resilient in a changing world and a way of life that would be more adaptive to the emerging difficulties associated with climate change and actually mitigate the cause of our declining atmospheric conditions.

Ian joins those eager to act on climate change

Ian Edwards has just joined those who support the values and ideals of Beneath the Wisteria.

The father of a five-year-old returned just eight-weeks ago to Queensland’s Sunshine Coast after about a decade living overseas, bringing with him his Canadian wife, Camille.

Ian, an accountant who worked for major finance companies, has enrolled at the Sunshine Coast University where he will study climate change adaptation.

While in Vancouver he was heavily involved with the “Citizens Climate Lobby” and subsequently is eager to establish something similar on the coast.

Looking at climate change through the eyes of a trained accountant with experience and knowledge gained from working two of the world’s leading financial groups, Ian sees the risks associated with climate change as “alarming”.

Ian appears truly eager to do something to help people on the coast understand the dynamics of climate change and so adapt successfully to what is ahead.

The Citizens Climate Lobby that Ian is a supporter of can be seen at - http://citizensclimatelobby.org/.

 

Climate change is on the march, double time

Climate change is inherently loaded with challenges, some to which we can adapt and others that are either impossible or border on that.

The latest warning from America’s Stanford University suggests the unfolding changes are happening so quickly that adaptation for much of life on earth is in fact impossible.

Scientific American says in a story headed: “Today’s climate change proves much faster than changes in the past 65 million years”, that earth’s eco systems will find it hard to adjust.

Quoting a Stanford University study, the Scientific American story said that if global temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next century, that increase will be 10 times faster than anything seen before.